Bear Market Bounce? Descending Triangle Short Target

I think the pattern is more evident here on the Dow Jones, when compared to SPX . The next leg down (when measured from peak to baseline) has us right at "bear market" territory. From the current high (open/close) a close beneath 21293.368 puts us below the 20% threshold, and while we may dip to this area, I'm not so certain we will close a session beneath this spot (not yet, anyways). I see two possible scenarios, the 1st is if the market caves fast and we begin the next leg immediately, the 2nd includes a possible bounce within the descending triangle formation before completion of the pattern. I would like to point out, that if there is a bounce at the 22.5k area which retraces higher than 50% of the immediate fall, that would indicate a possible reversal due to the weakness of the pattern breakout. The latest I see this playing out by is mid-June, though it could happen at any time before then.