ChartArt

Cycle periods when to make money on the US stock market

INDEX:DOWI   DOW Industrials
Summary: Buy stocks in the year 2020-2022 with sell target 25000 in the year 2026

The trend trajectory for the DOW Industrial index is starting to get very bearish in the year 2017 at the latest. A time when Donald Trump might have become the next US president, which would strongly influence the world history.

After a sharp three year decline of the stock market from the highs of the year 2015-2016 a bottom for the large downtrend of the year 2017 might be near during or shortly after the year "2020". Two years later a very strong new rally could start in the year 2022 when the "DOW" could move back above 19000 points. This rally could last at least until the year 2026 where 25000 points could be reached on the "DOWI".

Worth             reading:
The 56 Year Benner Cycle, "Periods when to make money" illustration by George Tritcht (1897)
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/08/the-56-year-benner-cycle/
"http://www.davidmcminn.com/pages/brenfib.htm"
http://visualoop.com/blog/6694/vintage-infodesign-16

"The 2021 major bottom cycle would be correspondent to the 1949 major low before the big bull move until the 1960's." - The Benner-Fibonacci Cycle Model
http://jogarembolsa.blogspot.com/2009/09/1920s-dow-versus-2000s-nasdaq.html

Economic Confidence Model (ECM)
http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/models/7219-2

P.S. I hope Tradingview exists for so long that we can follow the accuracy of this chart over the next decade :)

P.P.S . As of publishing this chart the DOWI             is below 16400 points (at 16398). If the chart gets messed up, here is a screenshot:
snapshot
Here is a higher quality image version of the "Benner-Fibonacci Cycle":

http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2010/12/13/763684-129227451831468-ChartProphet_origin.png


Quote from the source: "You’ll notice that this chart would have predicted the 1929 crash, the 2000 tech bubble peak, the 1987 crash, and 2003 bottom just to name a few. And as we extrapolate into the future, the cycle analysis seems to be confirming the Fibonacci chart I compiled above – 2021 and 2041 appear as “major troughs” on the cycle analysis after showing up as the two major years in the Fibonacci chart."

http://seekingalpha.com/article/241678-pattern-of-financial-recessions-could-be-pointing-to-2021-as-the-next-depression?page=2

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I came across another long-term stock market cycle developed by NowAndFutures which appears to be a group of friends who are investors http://nowandfutures.com/forecast.html

Their "global cycle 1972-2032" was developed before the year 2015 and shows a peak for October 1, 2015 and a bottom for October 27, 2016. The forecast goes on with a minor 2015 peak in November 24, 2017, followed by a major decline ending January 18, 2020 (which in this forecast is a major cycle bottom compared to 2016). After this major decline and bottom in 2020 follows a new rally with two peaks forecasted for Q1 2022 (minor peak) and Q1 2024 (major peak).

http://nowandfutures.com/images/global_cycle1972-2032.png
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ChartArt ChartArt
This cycle model by NowAndFutures shows a very similar forecast compared to the Economic Confidence Model (ECM) created by Armstrong.

Armstrong’s model shows a cycle peak in Q4 2015 (same as where NowAndFutures has a major peak) and forecasts a bottom in Q1 2020 (same where NowAndFutures projects a major bottom). The next peak in Armstrong’s ECM cycle is the year 2024 (same where NowAndFutures has a major peak):

image: http://s3.amazonaws.com/armstrongeconomics-wp/2012/08/ecconf-maa-clr.jpg via
http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/models/7219-2

Either NowAndFutures created a cycle model based on ideas from Armstrong, or both came to very similar conclusions when the next major stock market peaks and bottoms might occur.
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I discovered two quite exotic ideas why the US stock market might peak in the years 2017-2018:


"a 10-year forward offset for the crude oil price"
https://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/djia_and_the_echo_of_2007-08_oil_blowoff/

"waxing and waning periods for ocean temperatures saw their echoes about 33 months later in the movements of the SP500"
https://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/el_nino_la_nina_the_stock_market/


A peak around 2017-2018 fits with the forecasted cycle peak November 24, 2017 by nowandfutures (see other comment underneath this chart here https://www.tradingview.com/chart/DOWI/0f1XxdeH-Cycle-periods-when-to-make-money-on-the-US-stock-market/#tc468120)
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This is an article which was verifiable written in the year 2010 (see web archive link below) and forecasted a crash "as early as 2016 and as late as 2018, but more likely as late as 2017."

More quotes from that article:

"We believe that between 2011 and 2016-2018 will be known as the roaring teens period for the financial markets (especially the U.S. markets), and thus for the world’s major economies, and that many people will forget about the fact that booms frequently end in busts, especially when the foundation of the recovery is built on unsustainable economic policies. (...) What’s currently happening in Greece may foretell the imminent. The Greek government has been spending and borrowing way beyond its means for years (...) The U.S. is on the same path"

The rest of the article is very vague, but I have to give it to them that they were roughly right so far. With the foresight of seeing a bull run in the year 2010 going until around 2016-2018.

Financial Markets Prediction: 2016--2018 Start of Major Financial Tragedy, Copyright 2010 Scott Petullo, Stephen Petullo
http://www.selfgrowth.com/articles/financial-markets-prediction-2016-2018-start-of-major-financial-tragedy

proof that the forecast was written in the year 2010:
http://web.archive.org/web/20100625084000/http%3A//www.selfgrowth.com/articles/financial-markets-prediction-2016-2018-start-of-major-financial-tragedy
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ChartArt ChartArt
Since that article was very light on details, here is an article written by Doug Kass in 2016, which lists all the risk issues:

"2016-2018 Is Looking a Lot Like 2007-2008 to Me"
http://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2016/03/22/2016-2018_is_looking_a_lot_like_2007-2008_to_me_102074.html
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ChartArt ChartArt
Another weird forecast plus without giving any reasons why it will occur at that time:

Next Recession or Stock Market Crash in 2017 2018
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dOEraYSfVG8

"This prediction was made by me 7 years back in my book Stock Market Astrology & Astrological Theory of Business Cycles, which was published and copyrighted in the year 2009. I never made any prediction about Recessions in-between the years 2012, 2015 & 2016 like the quacks have been attempting to do so every year and if it strikes in any of these years then they will jump and beat their drum. I have made this prediction in 2009 and till date stick to it only."
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Economist Richard Hoey: Don't worry about the US economy...until 2018 (Interview by CNBC from December 2014):

"I'm not worried about 2015. I'm not worried about 2016, not too much about 2017. I think the bill comes due in 2018"

http://www.cnbc.com/2014/12/31/dont-worry-about-the-us-economyuntil-2018-economist.html
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concerning your PS: I hope you and I will still exist over the next decade... ;-)
+1 Reply
besides this version of the Benner Cycle which was created in the year 2009 (which I already posted above)
http://jogarembolsa.blogspot.com/2009/09/1920s-dow-versus-2000s-nasdaq.html

I found another version, which was created in the year 2010, which also shows a US stock market peak is possible based on this Benner Cycle in the year 2018
http://technically--speaking.blogspot.com/2010/01/benner-fibonacci-cycle.html
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There is a 10-year 'decade cycle' on the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which shows a high risk of a downtrend in the year 2017:


Dow Jones 10-year cycle (1896-2016)
http://www.seasonalcharts.com/zyklen_dekad_dowjones_100j.html

Dow Jones Decade Cycle (1896 - Present)
http://dogsofthedow.com/deccyc-m.htm


Decade cycle during various decades in the past:

1900s
http://dogsofthedow.com/deccyc-1900s.htm

1950s
http://dogsofthedow.com/deccyc-1950s.htm

1980s
http://dogsofthedow.com/deccyc-1980s.htm

1990s
http://dogsofthedow.com/deccyc-1990s.htm
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Thomas Bulkowski, author of several technical analysis books, has created a Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) monthly price forecast for the years 2017-2027. His forecast shows a peak in the year 2018:


Bulkowski used 10-year cycle research invented by Edgar Lawrence Smith in the 1930s.
http://thepatternsite.com/Forecast.html

Here is a direct link to his forecast for the year 2018, made in January 2017:
http://thepatternsite.com/images/Decennial2017.JPG

Here is a direct link to his older forecast for the year 2018, created in November 2011:
http://thepatternsite.com/images/DJForecastMonthly.JPG


You can find other 10-year decade cycle research here:
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/DOWI/0f1XxdeH-Cycle-periods-when-to-make-money-on-the-US-stock-market/#tc567988
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According to research from Eric Hadik, there is a 17-year cycle in the stock market. He believes a peak could occur in the year 2017:

Visualization of Hadik's cycle theory:
http://i1.wp.com/17yearcycle.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/17YC-2017.jpg?w=615


Quote:

"I encountered a unique article/paper that explained an uncanny 17-year cycle that impacted the Earth’s magnetic swings, solar magnetic swings (and coronal hole variations), and the ‘toward and away’ magnetic relationship between the two (http://www.researchgate.net/publication/226464099 & http://link.springer.com/article/10.1023%252FA%253A1005075703810). It provided some explanation of why this uncanny 17-Year Cycle would precisely time so many dramatic swings in human aggressiveness (military, social, financial/speculative, etc.)."

Source:
http://17yearcycle.com/about/17-year-cycle/


For those interested in his theories, here are three PDF files in which he explains his ideas:
http://17yearcycle.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/17-Year-Cycle-Stocks-2014-2016.pdf
http://17yearcycle.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/17-Year-Cycle-Stocks-2014-2016-II.pdf
http://17yearcycle.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/17-Year-Cycle-Stocks-2014-2016-III.pdf



There is also another analyst Kerry Balenthiran who also sees a 17-year cycle in the stock market, although his conclusion is not a 17.0-year cycle, but a 17.6-year cycle:

http://www.17yearstockmarketcycle.com/
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ChartArt ChartArt
@ChartArt, There is a relationship between the 88-year cycle which I mentioned in other comments underneath this chart and the 17-year cycle.


As explained by LunaticTrader:

"If 88.4 years is indeed a major wavelength in the stock market, then we would also expect so-called overtones or harmonics. Overtones occur for a number of reasons, and most typically they are integer multiples of the main frequency. For example if we divide 88.4 years by 5 we get 17.68 years. This could be the 17.6 year cycle that Kerry Balenthiran has proposed in his recent book."

https://lunatictrader.com/2013/10/31/questioning-financial-astrology-part-2/



Again a link to the 17-year cycle homepages:

Eric Hadik
http://17yearcycle.com/

Kerry Balenthiran
http://www.17yearstockmarketcycle.com/
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ChartArt ChartArt
@ChartArt, Martin Armstrong has made extensive research into cycles. He even analyzed for example prices of old Roman bronze follies 295-348 AD to come up with his own cycle theory. His conclusion is that there is a very strong 8.6 year-cycle (3140 days, a cycle of pi). Here his conclusion of years of research, source: https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/models/7219-2


"The 8.6 year frequency is inherent in everything and is fractal in nature. This cycle has been present even in ancient data."


I noticed that if you double Armstrong's 8.6-year cycle wavelength that you arrive at a 17.2-year cycle harmonic / overtone, which means that Martin Armstrong's research is strongly related to the 17-year cycle (17.6-year cycle) which Eric Hadik and Kerry Balenthiran say they discovered.
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Sandy Jadeja has discovered a 84-year cycle in the US stock market and he is afraid of greater volatility until 2018:

"We are currently in a very dangerous time zone until 2018. This is an 84-year cycle and the previous cycle appeared during 1928 until 1934 where the Great Depression took place," Sandy Jadeja said. "We have a situation. This lasts until 2018 for this particular cycle. And my worry is that we could see sudden sharp declines take place and tripping investors if they are not prepared," he said.

http://www.safehaven.com/article/42404/lets-review-sandy-jadeja-84-year-cycle-forecast
http://www.businessinsider.com/sandy-jadeja-interview-technical-analysis-dow-jones-market-crash-forecasts-2016-6
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ChartArt ChartArt
@ChartArt, The 84-year cycle has a similar length to the 88-year cycle which Brad Gudgeon claims to see in the market:

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/DOWI/0f1XxdeH-Cycle-periods-when-to-make-money-on-the-US-stock-market/#tc568020
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According to cycle research by Brad Gudgeon there is a 88-year human generation cycle and he is afraid that we repeat the mistakes of our great grand-parents in the near-future:

Quote:

"The 88-year great grandfather cycle has worked really well. The post WWI recession of 1920/21 adding 88 years equals 2008/09. According to the same cycle, we should be seeing a final top in late 2017, but my Elliott Wave work suggests it should come a year late (due to Central Bank manipulation, or the fact that we are living longer or both). That means we all have about 2 years to prepare for the worst crash since the Great Depression and then World War III." - Brad Gudgeon, November 6, 2016

http://blustarmarkettimer.blogspot.com/2016/11/countdown-e-wave-perspective.html
http://www.safehaven.com/article/43203/the-coming-crash-and-wwiii
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ChartArt ChartArt
@ChartArt, The 88-year cycle has a similar length to the 84-year cycle which Sandy Jadeja says he found in the US stock market:

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/DOWI/0f1XxdeH-Cycle-periods-when-to-make-money-on-the-US-stock-market/#tc568009
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ChartArt ChartArt
@ChartArt, I'm not into financial astrology, but there appears to also exist a 88.4-year astronomical cycle, as explained by LunaticTrader:

https://lunatictrader.com/2013/10/31/questioning-financial-astrology-part-2/
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ChartArt ChartArt
@ChartArt, Quote from LunaticTrader:

"Based on the earlier major peaks in 1835 and 1929, we would expect this blow-off peak to occur between 2012 and 2017, followed by a major low in 2020-2022.
As we have only two observed cycles it remains to be seen whether this pattern will show up. But if it does we would get some nice confirmation for this 88 year cycle."

again from:
https://lunatictrader.com/2013/10/31/questioning-financial-astrology-part-2/
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I discovered another cycle which points to a major decline in either 2018 or 2019, but not in the year 2017:

Quote:

"The four-year Presidential cycle has been used for quite a long time in anticipating major market lows. Since the year 1938 it has worked quite well. The cycle suggests a significant stock market low occurs in the second year of every President’s term (...) A new President just entered the White House in 2017. With the market at all-time highs, and a significant low having just occurred in 2016, it is quite unlikely his first year will see another significant low. The most likely target year for a significant low would be next year, 2018, his second year in office. If a significant low does not occur next year either. Then a significant market top should occur in the year 2019, his third year in office.

https://caldaro.wordpress.com/2017/03/18/weekend-update-596/
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Astro-finance also points to a major stock market decline around 2019-2025:

"A scientific paper by Charles J. Collins points out one simple correlation of solar-stock market movements that will, fortunately, come to another test within the two or three years ahead "

http://time-price-research-astrofin.blogspot.com/2017/02/the-effect-of-sunspot-activity-on-stock.html
http://time-price-research-astrofin.blogspot.com/2017/02/the-sunspot-cycle-and-stocks-robert-r.html

"Statistically speaking, the current sunspot Cycle 24 is scheduled to draw to a close sometime in 2019."

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/dr-sten-odenwald/waiting-for-the-next-suns_b_11812282.html
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In my comments here I mentioned the 17-year cycle (there are two different versions by Eric Hadik and Kerry Balenthiran). Interestingly there is also research into a 18-year real estate cycle, which is due to peak and pop since around the year 2016 (+/-)

http://time-price-research-astrofin.blogspot.com/2017/02/the-skyscraper-indicator-1790-2015.html

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