ChartArt

Cycle periods when to make money on the US stock market

INDEX:DOWI   DOW Industrials
Summary: Buy stocks in the year 2020-2022 with sell target 25000 in the year 2026

The trend trajectory for the DOW Industrial index is starting to get very bearish in the year 2017 at the latest. A time when Donald Trump might have become the next US president, which would strongly influence the world history.

After a sharp three year decline of the stock market from the highs of the year 2015-2016 a bottom for the large downtrend of the year 2017 might be near during or shortly after the year "2020". Two years later a very strong new rally could start in the year 2022 when the "DOW" could move back above 19000 points. This rally could last at least until the year 2026 where 25000 points could be reached on the "DOWI".

Worth reading:
The 56 Year Benner Cycle, "Periods when to make money" illustration by George Tritcht (1897)
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/08/the-56-year-benner-cycle/
"http://www.davidmcminn.com/pages/brenfib.htm"
http://visualoop.com/blog/6694/vintage-infodesign-16

"The 2021 major bottom cycle would be correspondent to the 1949 major low before the big bull move until the 1960's." - The Benner-Fibonacci Cycle Model
http://jogarembolsa.blogspot.com/2009/09/1920s-dow-versus-2000s-nasdaq.html

Economic Confidence Model (ECM)
http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/models/7219-2

P.S. I hope Tradingview exists for so long that we can follow the accuracy of this chart over the next decade :)

P.P.S . As of publishing this chart the DOWI             is below 16400 points (at 16398). If the chart gets messed up, here is a screenshot:
snapshot
ChartArt
9 months ago
Here is a higher quality image version of the "Benner-Fibonacci Cycle":

http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2010/12/13/763684-129227451831468-ChartProphet_origin.png


Quote from the source: "You’ll notice that this chart would have predicted the 1929 crash, the 2000 tech bubble peak, the 1987 crash, and 2003 bottom just to name a few. And as we extrapolate into the future, the cycle analysis seems to be confirming the Fibonacci chart I compiled above – 2021 and 2041 appear as “major troughs” on the cycle analysis after showing up as the two major years in the Fibonacci chart."

http://seekingalpha.com/article/241678-pattern-of-financial-recessions-could-be-pointing-to-2021-as-the-next-depression?page=2

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ChartArt
2 months ago
I came across another long-term stock market cycle developed by NowAndFutures which appears to be a group of friends who are investors http://nowandfutures.com/forecast.html

Their "global cycle 1972-2032" was developed before the year 2015 and shows a peak for October 1, 2015 and a bottom for October 27, 2016. The forecast goes on with a minor 2015 peak in November 24, 2017, followed by a major decline ending January 18, 2020 (which in this forecast is a major cycle bottom compared to 2016). After this major decline and bottom in 2020 follows a new rally with two peaks forecasted for Q1 2022 (minor peak) and Q1 2024 (major peak).

http://nowandfutures.com/images/global_cycle1972-2032.png
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ChartArt ChartArt
2 months ago
This cycle model by NowAndFutures shows a very similar forecast compared to the Economic Confidence Model (ECM) created by Armstrong.

Armstrong’s model shows a cycle peak in Q4 2015 (same as where NowAndFutures has a major peak) and forecasts a bottom in Q1 2020 (same where NowAndFutures projects a major bottom). The next peak in Armstrong’s ECM cycle is the year 2024 (same where NowAndFutures has a major peak):

image: http://s3.amazonaws.com/armstrongeconomics-wp/2012/08/ecconf-maa-clr.jpg via
http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/models/7219-2

Either NowAndFutures created a cycle model based on ideas from Armstrong, or both came to very similar conclusions when the next major stock market peaks and bottoms might occur.
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ChartArt
2 months ago
I discovered two quite exotic ideas why the US stock market might peak in the years 2017-2018:


"a 10-year forward offset for the crude oil price"
https://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/djia_and_the_echo_of_2007-08_oil_blowoff/

"waxing and waning periods for ocean temperatures saw their echoes about 33 months later in the movements of the SP500"
https://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/el_nino_la_nina_the_stock_market/


A peak around 2017-2018 fits with the forecasted cycle peak November 24, 2017 by nowandfutures (see other comment underneath this chart here https://www.tradingview.com/chart/DOWI/0f1XxdeH-Cycle-periods-when-to-make-money-on-the-US-stock-market/#tc468120)
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ChartArt
2 months ago
This is an article which was verifiable written in the year 2010 (see web archive link below) and forecasted a crash "as early as 2016 and as late as 2018, but more likely as late as 2017."

More quotes from that article:

"We believe that between 2011 and 2016-2018 will be known as the roaring teens period for the financial markets (especially the U.S. markets), and thus for the world’s major economies, and that many people will forget about the fact that booms frequently end in busts, especially when the foundation of the recovery is built on unsustainable economic policies. (...) What’s currently happening in Greece may foretell the imminent. The Greek government has been spending and borrowing way beyond its means for years (...) The U.S. is on the same path"

The rest of the article is very vague, but I have to give it to them that they were roughly right so far. With the foresight of seeing a bull run in the year 2010 going until around 2016-2018.

Financial Markets Prediction: 2016--2018 Start of Major Financial Tragedy, Copyright 2010 Scott Petullo, Stephen Petullo
http://www.selfgrowth.com/articles/financial-markets-prediction-2016-2018-start-of-major-financial-tragedy

proof that the forecast was written in the year 2010:
http://web.archive.org/web/20100625084000/http://www.selfgrowth.com/articles/financial-markets-prediction-2016-2018-start-of-major-financial-tragedy
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ChartArt ChartArt
2 months ago
Since that article was very light on details, here is an article written by Doug Kass in 2016, which lists all the risk issues:

"2016-2018 Is Looking a Lot Like 2007-2008 to Me"
http://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2016/03/22/2016-2018_is_looking_a_lot_like_2007-2008_to_me_102074.html
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ChartArt ChartArt
2 months ago
Another weird forecast plus without giving any reasons why it will occur at that time:

Next Recession or Stock Market Crash in 2017 2018
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dOEraYSfVG8

"This prediction was made by me 7 years back in my book Stock Market Astrology & Astrological Theory of Business Cycles, which was published and copyrighted in the year 2009. I never made any prediction about Recessions in-between the years 2012, 2015 & 2016 like the quacks have been attempting to do so every year and if it strikes in any of these years then they will jump and beat their drum. I have made this prediction in 2009 and till date stick to it only."
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ChartArt
2 months ago
Economist Richard Hoey: Don't worry about the US economy...until 2018 (Interview by CNBC from December 2014):

"I'm not worried about 2015. I'm not worried about 2016, not too much about 2017. I think the bill comes due in 2018"

http://www.cnbc.com/2014/12/31/dont-worry-about-the-us-economyuntil-2018-economist.html
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prisma
a month ago
concerning your PS: I hope you and I will still exist over the next decade... ;-)
+1 Reply
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