alexinve

DXY at 0.618 Jan 2018 Fib Retracement level. Will it test 0.786?

Long
TVC:DXY   U.S. Dollar Index
Over the past 5 years, August has been a bad month for the dollar except 2019, were DXY went up 2% in August. Long term bullish channel from April 2011 has seen DXY touch its lower bound this week and long-term bullish channel from Feb 2009 sees DXY approaching to its lower bound at 91, -3.15% from current level. Last week, DXY decreased 1.78% (biggest reduction since the -3.57% in March 23 week). Its RSI has not touched 30 yet, but considering the long-term bullish momentum dollar has had over the past 10 years, today at these levels (93.70) it would be pretty right to enter a long position until September 2021 where it may gain 10%. US elections, US riots (heard this month is being awful) and covid19 may drag DXY lower and increace Bitcoin and Gold safe haven prices; but the Fed may not want to stop buying US's stocks and that would motivate international investors to switch to dollar quoted stocks, hence increasing dollar value. The Fed may drag up the dollar price and the BCE sooner or later (maybe at 1.20 EURUSD) may issue a verbal communication that will decrease Euro value so as German exports are not affected in the near term.

In conclusion, considering the maximum loss is 3.15% or 5.92% if it destroys Feb 2009 long-term bullish channel; I would be long for a year in USD.
Btw, just realised that long term fib retracement (yellow one at April 2008) is about to see dollar touching 0.382 level (at 91.13), favorite zone for bullish investors.

Have a nice day and feel free to leave a comment!

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