OlympusLab

DXY Potential Forecast | Pre CPI | 11th April 2023

Short
TVC:DXY   U.S. Dollar Index
Fundamental Backdrop
1. CPI tomorrow will give greater clarity to the direction of the USD.
2. Last week's NFP result was positive and bullish for the USD, with unemployment rate falling to 3.5% yet again.
3. CPI m/m forecasted at 0.2% compared to previous 0.4%, market has been pricing in a further slow down in CPI.
4. CPI reading would provide insights to the next FOMC meeting and whether Fed continues to hike or pauses.
5. Core CPI m/m forecasted at 0.4% compared to previous 0.5%.
6. All in all, inflation has been slowing down and Olympus Labs forecast that the road to inflationary cooling will be a smooth one from here on out.

Technical Confluences
1. Price rejected off resistance at 102.8.
2. DXY still bearish on H4 timeframe.
3. Price could potentially tap into the support at 101.67.

Idea
We are looking for price to continue its bearish trajectory till 101.67 and potentially form a new low.






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