DXY has been consolidation above support all year. Major support level of 88.25 is being tested for the second time in three years. This time, I don't think it will hold.
I am looking for the DXY to break support in the second half of this year and continue to fall until the second half of 2024 where it should find a bottom around 72.7.
Factors which will influence this fall are FED asset purchases, low interest rate policy, US government spending.
If the FED is forced to raise interest rates then the bottom could be around 82. This all depends how extreme inflation becomes and how willing the FED is to acknowledge this inflation.
I think the FED will continue to try and talk down the markets to stall inflation but the markets will call the FED's bluff and force them to eventually take action. My feeling is the FED would like to wait on raising rates until "full employment" is achieved (unemployment rate of below 4%). This will be difficult to achieve without major technological advances due to automation in the workplace and streamlining of jobs.
I am looking for the DXY to break support in the second half of this year and continue to fall until the second half of 2024 where it should find a bottom around 72.7.
Factors which will influence this fall are FED asset purchases, low interest rate policy, US government spending.
If the FED is forced to raise interest rates then the bottom could be around 82. This all depends how extreme inflation becomes and how willing the FED is to acknowledge this inflation.
I think the FED will continue to try and talk down the markets to stall inflation but the markets will call the FED's bluff and force them to eventually take action. My feeling is the FED would like to wait on raising rates until "full employment" is achieved (unemployment rate of below 4%). This will be difficult to achieve without major technological advances due to automation in the workplace and streamlining of jobs.