TNasr
Long

EEM: Price target of 53.3 to 60.2 (long-term)

AMEX:EEM   ISHARES TRUST MSCI EMG MKTS ETF USD DIS
Dear all, the long-term charts and a forward looking ~year long time frame (markets are relatively timeless/ respect support and resistance levels more than anything) are looking very interesting. From the plain Fibonacci spread which spans Wave 3 (late Dec. 16 to late Jan. 17) and the two orange arrows we see that wave 4 has retraced almost exactly 50% of wave 3. Per expectations there is a 70% chance it retraces to within 38.2 - 61.8% of Wave 3 so we are directly in the middle of the highest probability scenario- textbook price action.

The question right now is whether we have bottomed short-term and obviously this is impossible to know but from the orange arrow in the MACD rectangle we can see bullish convergence so it is entirely plausible that we have but obviously this is still an assumption and we could see further downside with the 61.8 support of 40.82 being the next line of support. From the rainbow colored Fibonacci trend (Waves 2-4) derived levels I have a long-term target for completion of the fifth-wave of between the 0.618 - 1 levels which correspond to 53.3 to 60.2 per the title of this article.

Thanks for reading, please feel free to ask any questions, leave a comment, or debate me if you disagree.

Disclaimer: While I am a firm believer that markets are driven by alternating waves of optimism and pessimism or put short investor sentiment there are exceptions to every rule. The link between strength of the dollar and the performance of foreign currency based investments; by definition, is a serious factor that must be considered. Thus if you think the dollar is going to weaken EEM , VWO , and any investment vehicle denominated in foreign currencies should be a screaming buy and vice-versa.
Comment: Today we are literally on the make or break borderline of the end of wave 1, any significant dip and this setup is invalidated, if we can hold here it will be a golden buying opportunity.
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