#003-2.4 S&P 500 SMACK DOWN (DON'T BE GREEDY & COVER @3750)

THESE TRADE RECO "FOR THE RECORD".

I will post records from time to time. Anyway, what also makes me think gold won't hold 1627 and eventually bottom circa 1540-1550 like this:

... is that S&P 500 LOOKS TERRIBLE RIGHT NOW. SO terrible that I am opening a trade reco. This thing will likely have 2 legs and the second leg go to 3400. This is just trading the first leg. If you need me to explain why a drop in US equity would be bad for gold, maybe some other time (maybe not).

ENTRY SHORT @ 3964.25 AT 1:23 PM ET ON TUESDAY 03/16.
STOP LOSS @ 4025
TARGET @ UNDER 3600
TP/COVER @ 3725

WHY COVER EARLY? BC I DONT HAVE TIME TO DETAIL IT.

BTW, WILL ANNOUNCE GOLD SHORT FOR THE RECORD

ENTRY SHORT @ 1732 AT 1:30 PM ET ON SAME DAY.
STOP LOSS @ 1751
TARGET @ 1627
TP/COVER 1640

Comment:

WED 3/17 10:36 AM, LOWER STOPS ON BOTH TRADES:

ES1!, SL FROM 4025 TO 3985
XAUUSD SL FROM 1751 TO 1741

Why risk more than you have to?

Comment:

WED 3/17 10:53 AM, ES NEW LOW OF DAY 3928, LOWER STOP AGAIN.

ORIGINAL ENTRY 3964.25
LOWER SL 3985 TO 3962

Why? Something wrong?

No. I really like this short. But It is true I dont trade equity often. So lets make sure we dont lose this one.

Comment:

WED 3/17 1:46 PM ET.

COVER ES1! SHORT @ 3934.50.
COVER GOLD SHIRT @1729.32.

Comment:

Why? I am seeing something in volume to be suspicous about.

Comment:

3/19, BTW NOTHING HAS CHANGED OVERALL:

Comment:

My trade notes are more for specific record keeping to be referenced later. I saw something on 12-min bars Wednesday afternoon that looked like a temporary spike (which happended).

Comment:

10.30 AM ET WED 03.25

FLOOR FOR THIS T4ADE HAS MOVED TO 3785 SO IF STILL SHORT MOVE TP TO 3800. IF YOU'VE READ THE NOTES IN (SCROLL DOWN TO VERY END):

IT LOOKS LIKE SPX WILL BOUNCE TO 4040 AND THEN DO MOVE TO 34XX.

Comment:

Otherwise I consider this finished.

Comment:

12.00 NOON ET WED 3.24.

I HAVE CONVICTION WE WILL BREAK 3700 SO LETS MOVE TP BACK DOWN TO 3715 (YES, PAST ORIGINAL TP)

Comment:

12:34 AM

SINCE I DONT' ACTUALLY HAVE AN OPEN TRADE FOR ES/US500/SPX/SPY RIGHT NOW (SINCE COVERING ON FOMC) "FOR THE RECORD", WILL TAKE THIS ENTRY:

SHORT 3877
SL 3904
TP 3715
TARGET UNDER 3700

Comment:

12.54 PM ET.

ITS 3883.5 NOW, MOV SL UP TO 1921.5.

WHY?

BC REGRESSIONS SHOW POSSIBLE PUSH TO 1918 AREA BEFORE SMACK DOWN REALLY HARD.

Comment:

1.46 PM ET. MOVE SL DOWN TO 3894.

ODDS FAVOR SAVING SOME ROOM NOW.

Comment:

4.25 PM ET

SO STOPPED OUT. RE ENTRY SHORT 3905.25
SL 3921.5
TP 3725
TARGET 3700

SO SAVED A LITTLE BIT.

Comment:

FRIDAY 10:40 AM ET

RESHORT 3926
SL 3966
TP LATER
TARGET LATER

Comment:

1ST 3 ES SHORTS LEADING TO THIS ONE:

1. 3964.25/3934.5, +29.75
2. 3877/3894, -17.00
3. 3905.25,3921.5 -16.25

SO RESULT WOULD BE TRADE # 4 -3.5, SHORT FROM 3926

Comment:

FTR 3/25 11:37 AM CT

001-0 LONG 1859.60 CLOSE 1822, -2.022%
002-5 SHORT 1798.16 CLOSE 1680, +6.571%
002-7, 003-2.5 COMBINED SHORTS CLOSE, +8.4%
003-2.4, 003-2.6 GOLD COMBINED SHORTS= +.78%

FOR EASY RECORD KEEPING, THIS WILL BE
003-2.4 SHORT (ES1!) 3922.5

Comment:

03.26 2.00 PM ET

COVER 3918

Q: SO THIS WHOLE EXERCISE WITH ES WORTH 4.5 PTS, IS THAT IT?

A: No, bc the trend has been correct for 8 days. And since I dont trade equoties regularly, wanted to wait for the BIG RR LEG. But big upside volume appearing for bulls that pretty much concludes this projection.