#ES Futures 06.15.22 Daily Plan with Levels
FED Day! What will the market give us today? Yday we were not able to hold our Key Support of 3764.75-3760.50 as we expected because we were under T+2 low and had people trapped from Globex session above, we were able to get below and accept in lower range and we got the test of lower levels down to our next Key Support at 3714.75-3709.75 and as mentioned we needed extra juice to get through that level and since it was almost towards the end of the day when we got there I did not expect much continuation, I did not expect that good of response from there right away either so I didnt trade it but we got what we got. I spent my day shorting from 65-60 area and had myself a great day. Today can be very tricky to trade as all FED days are because lots of eyes are watching and waiting, currently Globex inventory is 100% long from our close, we are inside T+2 range and seems like cleaning out sellers from above our 3764.75-3760.50 level. We have Retail Sales 8:30 and FOMC starting at 2, Key today is to manage expectations and not expect big moves until they prove themselves.
- Supports Today: 3747.50-3744.75 is our PM Support and the area of Yday close which will be important and current Key Level at 3764.75-3760.50 as well as T+2 low
- Resistance Today: 3780.50-3776.75 is our current PM Resistance then 3791.75-3787.75 and our Key Level of 3809.50-3805.25 also our T+2 high area for today (from RTH not including Globex) is right at our 3825.50-3820.25 level.
> On The Upside continuing to hold above PM Support is a sign of strength, our position is currently under us below 3764.75-3760.50 level which if holds today can give us a test of higher levels at 3780.50-3776.75, 3791.75-3787.75 if we get through those I will be watching next Key Resistance at 3809.50-3805.25 which is Prev Day Globex high area, watching for us to take it and hold or take it and come back in or fail to take. We should still have sellers in the market and I do see us testing the lower Key levels again at some point, will it be today or not we will have to see but I am managing my expectations to the upside until those levels start getting taken out and we hold over.
> On The Downside getting back under 3764.75-3760.50 will be our first signs of weakness and breaking our PM support will be a better downside confirm for me, if this happens im looking for a test of 3728.75-3725.25, Key Support at 3714.75-3709.75 and possibly a break of that to 3698.50-3695.50, 3686.75-3683.75 and possibly next Key Support at 3671.75-3665.75 to be tested.
As Mentioned Fed days are tricky and we can even see both scenarios play out with them running it up to sell their position from below and then dropping the bid or going lower first trapping more people short to give them a push higher. Have to be patient and watch levels for breaks and continuation.
- Supports Today: 3747.50-3744.75 is our PM Support and the area of Yday close which will be important and current Key Level at 3764.75-3760.50 as well as T+2 low
- Resistance Today: 3780.50-3776.75 is our current PM Resistance then 3791.75-3787.75 and our Key Level of 3809.50-3805.25 also our T+2 high area for today (from RTH not including Globex) is right at our 3825.50-3820.25 level.
> On The Upside continuing to hold above PM Support is a sign of strength, our position is currently under us below 3764.75-3760.50 level which if holds today can give us a test of higher levels at 3780.50-3776.75, 3791.75-3787.75 if we get through those I will be watching next Key Resistance at 3809.50-3805.25 which is Prev Day Globex high area, watching for us to take it and hold or take it and come back in or fail to take. We should still have sellers in the market and I do see us testing the lower Key levels again at some point, will it be today or not we will have to see but I am managing my expectations to the upside until those levels start getting taken out and we hold over.
> On The Downside getting back under 3764.75-3760.50 will be our first signs of weakness and breaking our PM support will be a better downside confirm for me, if this happens im looking for a test of 3728.75-3725.25, Key Support at 3714.75-3709.75 and possibly a break of that to 3698.50-3695.50, 3686.75-3683.75 and possibly next Key Support at 3671.75-3665.75 to be tested.
As Mentioned Fed days are tricky and we can even see both scenarios play out with them running it up to sell their position from below and then dropping the bid or going lower first trapping more people short to give them a push higher. Have to be patient and watch levels for breaks and continuation.
Comment:
Looks like we are running the price up to sell our product from lower levels before the FED, I will be watching Key Resistance area of 3809.50-3805.25 and T+2 high at 3825.50-3820.25 For Clues, if we get there and spend time between without extension and come back in then we might get our downside to play out as well today. Have to get over this 3791.75-3787.75 first and get there of course.
Comment:
Failed at 3791.75-3787.75 level and sold off right into Key Support area where we found buyers for now, I missed both the short from 91-87 and the long from above 65 because I thought it will be a bit more chill before FOMC but should have traded the structure it was showing from the levels. Lets see what FOMC will give us and where we will be before then.
Comment:
Wild day today, again with a bit of over trading... wasnt focused today, before FOMC managed to run up a -134 micro point tab, but referred back to the plan and levels I was watching and was able to grab a trade from 73 down to 25 areas with last runner getting stopped out at 50 and finished day +52.50 micro. Overall we ran T+2 high area and reached next level up but failed to take it and failed to reach next Key Resistance which is right away warning sign for me, we also trapped a bunch of people long over 3809.50-3805.25 so depending where we close and what we do in Globex but I wont be surprised to see the lows again at some point, maybe this week still.