SPX - pre market commentary plus gold, usoil, dxy, bonds, appl

All in the video, basically I'm waiting for ES to break 3950 area convincingly and then retest it for a short. My guess right now is - not much will happen before FOMC and AAPL earnings, but who knows for sure. USOIl may make one more high to 84, it would be a good shorting opportunity. Gold looks strong and the dollar is still weak. Bonds also close to resistance but could get up to 133-4 first. AAPL has resistance above so a gap up and then fail after earning would be interesting to a bear like me :)

Good luck!

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Good morning, market sell off overnight. A little farther down would get us to support and I would think a bounce back to the resistance area would happen later today. If so, I'll add some shorts there. The bounce may come sooner as well.

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resistance area reached, lets see what happens

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SPY collection of MA's at 394-393

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wouldn't surprise me to get another move up today to take out shorts and chop this market a bit more before going lower. As of right now I believe the high is in place.

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oil holding the 18ma daily. A close below and the bias flips bearish

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I expect a move up for the rest of today or into tomorrow for a C wave. However, if it is a C wave, a larger drop will begin to take place sometime tomorrow.

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very little change to put/call ratio charts so far.

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very possible we are already in the third wave and google and other earnings will help push it down to the channel before FOMC. So far it makes sense, and the structure would end with an ABC to test the MA's at 3950. We'll see if this is correct.

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oil closed under it's 18ma - bias now bearish.

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looks like a C this morning look for resistance and failure around 4050 on spx

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If this is a 1-2, 3 should begin sometime today and really get moving after FOMC. Not sure if correct, but here it is -

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target area reached

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oil back to test the 18ma on daily - objective short area.

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we've reached the .618 fib. I'm not sure if this is a 2 or a B wave. Either way I think it drops, the question is whether the top is in or not.