ES - 1 Hour - Fat Man Sittiing on a Little Stool
Hands me a ticket, smiles, and whispers good luck
It ought to be easy, ought to be simple enough
You've got to learn to live with what you can't rise above
"We choose Truth over Facts."
__________________________________________________
How will the Grift continue for now?
Expect the following (Complete Bullsh_t)
Current 12-month EPS: 203.97 Reported Mar 2022 / June Data
will not arrive until Mid September for Q2.
4100/203.97 = 20.1 P/E for ES/S&P500
Considering the sheer amount of Fraud in reporting, the lack of
forward guidance, crashing NETs due to increased per unit costs,
purchasing power parity in rapid decline...
Estimates for Q2 are presently @ $215
215 x 20.1 (current ratio) 4321.50 ES
Consider the very wide range of estimates provided from 2800 to
5300 from Wall Street... a 3500 Point Range...
Given the future negatives all wall street can attempt is to continue
multiple expansion based upon "less bad" Earnings.
We've seen a large retracement ahead of Q2 EPS - 3639 to highs
of 4147 - a 500 Point expansion to the current top of the range.
I believe Q3 will be an even greater disaster in EPS terms.
Here is Blackrocks case for Multiple Expansion:
Market overview and outlook
The first five months of the year marked the worst start for the
S&P 500 since 1970 ― and the sixth worst back to 1928.* While
caution is warranted, we believe the equity risk premium (ERP)
continues to make a case for equities.
Stock valuations have come down, but company earnings remain solid.
This keeps the ERP ― which compares the earnings yield on the S&P 500
to bond yields ― above its historical average. Our models suggest the
10-year Treasury yield would have to rise to 4% or earnings decline by
more than 20% for the perceived “margin of safety” in stocks over bonds
to disappear. Earnings will slow, but 20% is hard to imagine, even in a
recession. The average earnings drop in prior recessions was 13%, with
the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) skewing the results.
Total Bullsh_t, of course, notwithstanding the mixed metaphors oooh so
soothing to the buffalo.
ERP has risen again and P/Es have moved off the 16 handles to over 20,
hardly a reduction in Price/Earnings.
Anticipating 4% as the Line in the Sand for the UST Short End or Fed Funds
Effective would be far worse, and well beyond their implied "Margin of Safety"
This is how Wall Street and its Ilk manage perception while people too lazy
to pick up a f_cking calculator are creamed again and again.
Analysis of any merit is extremely difficult to find, it is quite rare in fact.
Imagine these f_cks accomplishing a multiple expansion on Q4 Projections
to say... 25 and S&P Earnings projected higher again and again for year-end.
It leads to a toxic melt-up. Can they keep it together this long? it is highly
improbable, but must be considered for the 5/5 to manifest itself.
It crossed my mind last night, that these f_ckers have nothing to lose in
attempting such a fraud, and everything to lose in not doing so.
Cornered inbred rats...
_________________________________________________
We need to remain Objective to their Game, not reality - as it has disconnected
once again.
__________________________________________________
The Summer Solstice Markets are enjoying a Summer of
Subsidies... forward guidance is no ON for the FED.
$2 Trillion goes into the FASB 56 Black Hole, it's not going
to show up at the FED. Hate Biden? Thank Trump for
FASB 56, he signed it, not Bribe-In.
They are all scum, a voting ship of fools. Lurching from
Team Liar to Team Fraud again... foolish, ignorant.
Dick Cheney's face, two looks - one evil prick.
Four of the F_ckers informed the Degens they are getting
out over their Skis again. Jerry, passively hinting the same.
Perfect setup for BlackRock Economy, $10 Trillion in Jing
Bing for 9/9 Quarters of declining Real GDP, not 2 Quarters
of Neggy GDP.
Lies, more Lires, and arguing over Orwellian Ministry of
Truth bullhorn b_llsh_t.
It ought to be easy, ought to be simple enough
You've got to learn to live with what you can't rise above
"We choose Truth over Facts."
__________________________________________________
How will the Grift continue for now?
Expect the following (Complete Bullsh_t)
Current 12-month EPS: 203.97 Reported Mar 2022 / June Data
will not arrive until Mid September for Q2.
4100/203.97 = 20.1 P/E for ES/S&P500
Considering the sheer amount of Fraud in reporting, the lack of
forward guidance, crashing NETs due to increased per unit costs,
purchasing power parity in rapid decline...
Estimates for Q2 are presently @ $215
215 x 20.1 (current ratio) 4321.50 ES
Consider the very wide range of estimates provided from 2800 to
5300 from Wall Street... a 3500 Point Range...
Given the future negatives all wall street can attempt is to continue
multiple expansion based upon "less bad" Earnings.
We've seen a large retracement ahead of Q2 EPS - 3639 to highs
of 4147 - a 500 Point expansion to the current top of the range.
I believe Q3 will be an even greater disaster in EPS terms.
Here is Blackrocks case for Multiple Expansion:
Market overview and outlook
The first five months of the year marked the worst start for the
S&P 500 since 1970 ― and the sixth worst back to 1928.* While
caution is warranted, we believe the equity risk premium (ERP)
continues to make a case for equities.
Stock valuations have come down, but company earnings remain solid.
This keeps the ERP ― which compares the earnings yield on the S&P 500
to bond yields ― above its historical average. Our models suggest the
10-year Treasury yield would have to rise to 4% or earnings decline by
more than 20% for the perceived “margin of safety” in stocks over bonds
to disappear. Earnings will slow, but 20% is hard to imagine, even in a
recession. The average earnings drop in prior recessions was 13%, with
the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) skewing the results.
Total Bullsh_t, of course, notwithstanding the mixed metaphors oooh so
soothing to the buffalo.
ERP has risen again and P/Es have moved off the 16 handles to over 20,
hardly a reduction in Price/Earnings.
Anticipating 4% as the Line in the Sand for the UST Short End or Fed Funds
Effective would be far worse, and well beyond their implied "Margin of Safety"
This is how Wall Street and its Ilk manage perception while people too lazy
to pick up a f_cking calculator are creamed again and again.
Analysis of any merit is extremely difficult to find, it is quite rare in fact.
Imagine these f_cks accomplishing a multiple expansion on Q4 Projections
to say... 25 and S&P Earnings projected higher again and again for year-end.
It leads to a toxic melt-up. Can they keep it together this long? it is highly
improbable, but must be considered for the 5/5 to manifest itself.
It crossed my mind last night, that these f_ckers have nothing to lose in
attempting such a fraud, and everything to lose in not doing so.
Cornered inbred rats...
_________________________________________________
We need to remain Objective to their Game, not reality - as it has disconnected
once again.
__________________________________________________
The Summer Solstice Markets are enjoying a Summer of
Subsidies... forward guidance is no ON for the FED.
$2 Trillion goes into the FASB 56 Black Hole, it's not going
to show up at the FED. Hate Biden? Thank Trump for
FASB 56, he signed it, not Bribe-In.
They are all scum, a voting ship of fools. Lurching from
Team Liar to Team Fraud again... foolish, ignorant.
Dick Cheney's face, two looks - one evil prick.
Four of the F_ckers informed the Degens they are getting
out over their Skis again. Jerry, passively hinting the same.
Perfect setup for BlackRock Economy, $10 Trillion in Jing
Bing for 9/9 Quarters of declining Real GDP, not 2 Quarters
of Neggy GDP.
Lies, more Lires, and arguing over Orwellian Ministry of
Truth bullhorn b_llsh_t.
Suggested 4170 was the level to observe, it traded to the Tick.
It is SPY Pivot to higher.