July 18 Market Update | Technical, Fundamental, News
Description:
An analysis for the week ahead.
Points of Interest:
S&P $3,200 Balance; February Gap; Nasdaq Weakness, Russell and Dow Strength.
Technical:
Broad-market equity indices balanced higher last week, evidenced by the responsive, tight trading range.
Recapping last week’s action, on Monday, the S&P 500 gapped higher, outside of a prior balance area, but failed to continue, rotating back into the prior week’s range. Tuesday’s session continued Monday’s selling activity, but reversed just short of the prior balance area low.
After news that Moderna Inc’s (NASDAQ: MRNA) COVID-19 coronavirus vaccine produced antibodies, Wednesday’s session saw prices pushing higher, gapping beyond Tuesday’s range. Buyers attempted to burst through the resting liquidity at $3,230, but failed with prices later following the Nasdaq’s relative weakness lower to close the overnight gap. After some mixed economic data, Thursday's session was dominated by responsive activity, balancing out near Wednesday’s v-bottom low, with sellers lacking conviction the most via the minimal excess low. Alongside monthly options expiry, Friday’s session continued Thursday’s tone with the intraday trading range remaining tight and responsive.
Looking beyond broad market indices, the innovation-driven, technology-based sectors are showing signs of relative weakness, while other sectors, such as industrials, energy, and financials are rotating higher off recent support.
Overall, the market is in a 3-day balance that it’s likely to break, come next week. Positive news regarding a vaccine, earnings, and stimulus may help further squeeze shorts as we look to fill the gap above, left from late February.
Scroll to bottom of document for non-profile charts.
Key Events:
Earnings; Existing-Home Sales; New-Home Sales; Initial Claims. tmsnrt.rs/2Wy3j5P
Fundamental:
Airline industry demand projected to surpass 2019 levels in 2023. bit.ly/32wFTBy
JETS
Travel industry seeks government assistance, tax breaks to spur trips. reut.rs/2Oztapx
Rocket Companies expects profit to surge ahead of the U.S. IPO. reut.rs/2ZE6kTS
Canadian wholesale trade posts largest jump in 17 years. reut.rs/2CRA1Yz
Flight to suburbs boosts homebuilding as consumer sentiment fades. reut.rs/2WxBo5W
Europe meets on Recovery and Resilience Facility agreement. bit.ly/30nEASF
60% or large firms with sales over $2 billion expect growth to accelerate. bit.ly/2CoR4l2
The U.S. ended Hong Kong’s special status to punish China. bloom.bg/3fHtGO9
Applications for new home purchases rose 54.1% from a year ago. bit.ly/3996llN
Options on the Micro E-Mini S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 to arrive August, 31. bit.ly/3joFnf1
84% of PPP loan recipients will exhaust funding by the first week of August. bit.ly/32vYqh7
63% of small business owners say less than 75% of their revenue has returned. bit.ly/32vYqh7
$64 billion invested in North American startups, down 10% year-to-date. bit.ly/3jgLFx1
Nasdaq optimism hits dangerous levels as tech becomes an attractive hedge. bit.ly/2CKfsgM
$40-per-barrel not a sufficient clearing price for leveraged shale producers. bit.ly/2CKfsgM
China bank lending hits record $1.72 trillion in first half after solid June. reut.rs/3eDdFHL
Dominion Energy Inc (NYSE: D) to sell gas assets, cancel pipeline. bit.ly/3jiWH4Y
D
U.S. withdraws some underwriting requirements, a positive for payday lenders. bit.ly/3jiWH4Y
Increase in transactions suggests a rebound in Russia’s economy. bit.ly/3jiWH4Y
Acquisition of National General increases Allstate Corp’s (NYSE: ALL) leverage. bit.ly/3jiWH4Y
ALL
U.K. actions to buoy employment and businesses, mitigate prolonged shock. bit.ly/3jiWH4Y
Moderna Inc’s (NASDAQ: MRNA) vaccine elicited coronavirus antibodies. bloom.bg/2BgQV2E
MRNA
Corporate credit quality improved in the week ending July 15. bit.ly/399dH8S
U.S. and China tech cold war could cost the sector more than $3.5 trillion. bit.ly/3eG3oKI
Canada is poaching tech talent from the U.S. via Express Entry program. bit.ly/3fSK3qY
China shows economic recovery with 3.2% GDP growth in Q2. bit.ly/397fRG6
U.S. manufacturing increased for the second month, by 5.4%. on.wsj.com/30oz8Pl
The jobs market is poised to reverse May and June gains. bit.ly/39a33Px
Charles Schwab Corporation (NYSE: SCHW) made less money despite adding assets. bit.ly/3jgUVB8
SCHW
Coronavirus surge sparks worries over renewed lockdowns, global fuel demand. reut.rs/2Ozr5tJ
China’s bull run could signal a Wall Street stampede. bit.ly/2CLYsH6
Cuomo confirms New York City will enter the final phase of reopening Monday. on.mktw.net/30nLUh7
Brazil to allow citizens to withdraw from pension funds early. reut.rs/3fK6crB
Ally Financial Inc (NYSE: ALLY) delinquencies, charge-offs of auto loans improve. on.wsj.com/2WsPWUn
ALLY
Hospitals may be falsely labeling COVID-19 coronavirus deaths. bit.ly/397Diz2
Underwriting to come down according to JPMorgan Chase & Co (NYSE: JPM). bloom.bg/2ZE4SRq
JPM
Copper-to-gold ratio suggests rates should be higher than they currently are. bloom.bg/2ZH2kCk
Sentiment: 30.8% Bullish, 23.8% Neutral, 45.4% Bearish as of 7/18/2020. bit.ly/330VhEp
Gamma Exposure: (Trending Lower) 2,257,721,540 as of 7/18/2020. bit.ly/2UpgtRE
Dark Pool Index: (Trending Lower) 45.8% as of 7/18/2020. bit.ly/2UpgtRE
Product Analysis:
S&P 500 (ES):
Nasdaq 100 (NQ):
Russell 2000 (RTY):
Gold (GC):
Crude Oil (CL):
Treasury Bonds (ZB):
Disclaimer:
This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve, especially me.
In no way should this post be construed as investment advice.
An analysis for the week ahead.
Points of Interest:
S&P $3,200 Balance; February Gap; Nasdaq Weakness, Russell and Dow Strength.
Technical:
Broad-market equity indices balanced higher last week, evidenced by the responsive, tight trading range.
Recapping last week’s action, on Monday, the S&P 500 gapped higher, outside of a prior balance area, but failed to continue, rotating back into the prior week’s range. Tuesday’s session continued Monday’s selling activity, but reversed just short of the prior balance area low.
After news that Moderna Inc’s (NASDAQ: MRNA) COVID-19 coronavirus vaccine produced antibodies, Wednesday’s session saw prices pushing higher, gapping beyond Tuesday’s range. Buyers attempted to burst through the resting liquidity at $3,230, but failed with prices later following the Nasdaq’s relative weakness lower to close the overnight gap. After some mixed economic data, Thursday's session was dominated by responsive activity, balancing out near Wednesday’s v-bottom low, with sellers lacking conviction the most via the minimal excess low. Alongside monthly options expiry, Friday’s session continued Thursday’s tone with the intraday trading range remaining tight and responsive.
Looking beyond broad market indices, the innovation-driven, technology-based sectors are showing signs of relative weakness, while other sectors, such as industrials, energy, and financials are rotating higher off recent support.
Overall, the market is in a 3-day balance that it’s likely to break, come next week. Positive news regarding a vaccine, earnings, and stimulus may help further squeeze shorts as we look to fill the gap above, left from late February.
Scroll to bottom of document for non-profile charts.
Key Events:
Earnings; Existing-Home Sales; New-Home Sales; Initial Claims. tmsnrt.rs/2Wy3j5P
Fundamental:
Airline industry demand projected to surpass 2019 levels in 2023. bit.ly/32wFTBy
JETS
Travel industry seeks government assistance, tax breaks to spur trips. reut.rs/2Oztapx
Rocket Companies expects profit to surge ahead of the U.S. IPO. reut.rs/2ZE6kTS
Canadian wholesale trade posts largest jump in 17 years. reut.rs/2CRA1Yz
Flight to suburbs boosts homebuilding as consumer sentiment fades. reut.rs/2WxBo5W
Europe meets on Recovery and Resilience Facility agreement. bit.ly/30nEASF
60% or large firms with sales over $2 billion expect growth to accelerate. bit.ly/2CoR4l2
The U.S. ended Hong Kong’s special status to punish China. bloom.bg/3fHtGO9
Applications for new home purchases rose 54.1% from a year ago. bit.ly/3996llN
Options on the Micro E-Mini S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 to arrive August, 31. bit.ly/3joFnf1
84% of PPP loan recipients will exhaust funding by the first week of August. bit.ly/32vYqh7
63% of small business owners say less than 75% of their revenue has returned. bit.ly/32vYqh7
$64 billion invested in North American startups, down 10% year-to-date. bit.ly/3jgLFx1
Nasdaq optimism hits dangerous levels as tech becomes an attractive hedge. bit.ly/2CKfsgM
$40-per-barrel not a sufficient clearing price for leveraged shale producers. bit.ly/2CKfsgM
China bank lending hits record $1.72 trillion in first half after solid June. reut.rs/3eDdFHL
Dominion Energy Inc (NYSE: D) to sell gas assets, cancel pipeline. bit.ly/3jiWH4Y
D
U.S. withdraws some underwriting requirements, a positive for payday lenders. bit.ly/3jiWH4Y
Increase in transactions suggests a rebound in Russia’s economy. bit.ly/3jiWH4Y
Acquisition of National General increases Allstate Corp’s (NYSE: ALL) leverage. bit.ly/3jiWH4Y
ALL
U.K. actions to buoy employment and businesses, mitigate prolonged shock. bit.ly/3jiWH4Y
Moderna Inc’s (NASDAQ: MRNA) vaccine elicited coronavirus antibodies. bloom.bg/2BgQV2E
MRNA
Corporate credit quality improved in the week ending July 15. bit.ly/399dH8S
U.S. and China tech cold war could cost the sector more than $3.5 trillion. bit.ly/3eG3oKI
Canada is poaching tech talent from the U.S. via Express Entry program. bit.ly/3fSK3qY
China shows economic recovery with 3.2% GDP growth in Q2. bit.ly/397fRG6
U.S. manufacturing increased for the second month, by 5.4%. on.wsj.com/30oz8Pl
The jobs market is poised to reverse May and June gains. bit.ly/39a33Px
Charles Schwab Corporation (NYSE: SCHW) made less money despite adding assets. bit.ly/3jgUVB8
SCHW
Coronavirus surge sparks worries over renewed lockdowns, global fuel demand. reut.rs/2Ozr5tJ
China’s bull run could signal a Wall Street stampede. bit.ly/2CLYsH6
Cuomo confirms New York City will enter the final phase of reopening Monday. on.mktw.net/30nLUh7
Brazil to allow citizens to withdraw from pension funds early. reut.rs/3fK6crB
Ally Financial Inc (NYSE: ALLY) delinquencies, charge-offs of auto loans improve. on.wsj.com/2WsPWUn
ALLY
Hospitals may be falsely labeling COVID-19 coronavirus deaths. bit.ly/397Diz2
Underwriting to come down according to JPMorgan Chase & Co (NYSE: JPM). bloom.bg/2ZE4SRq
JPM
Copper-to-gold ratio suggests rates should be higher than they currently are. bloom.bg/2ZH2kCk
Sentiment: 30.8% Bullish, 23.8% Neutral, 45.4% Bearish as of 7/18/2020. bit.ly/330VhEp
Gamma Exposure: (Trending Lower) 2,257,721,540 as of 7/18/2020. bit.ly/2UpgtRE
Dark Pool Index: (Trending Lower) 45.8% as of 7/18/2020. bit.ly/2UpgtRE
Product Analysis:
S&P 500 (ES):
Disclaimer:
This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve, especially me.
In no way should this post be construed as investment advice.
This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve (myself especially), so if you see something wrong, speak up.
