I'm not one for bucking a major trend but I think that the recent action in the S&P deserves some attention.
It doesn't take a genius to see that the S&P has been in an uptrend since the selling climax to begin the year. The most recent action, however, is cause for alarm. In Point #1, what you see are prices going above a previous level of resistance. Some would say that's bullish but I'm skeptical of that because the nature of the rally looks tired...as if price has struggled to reach it's current level. What you would also notice is that volume on the current upwave is diminishing.
In point #2, I outlined a small area of consolidation (or, a trading range). As you can see, prices broke below the range, came back to test it and remained below the range until election night. This break also found support on at the 4/16 highs and continued that way until the volatility from the election. Before the election, as I just stated, prices broke below the range but take a look at point #3 and you'd see that the cumulative volume on that break was the most volume on a down move since the early January selloff (at that time). To me, that indicates that supply is entering the market. After the downwave volume at point #3, look how the selling waves continue to drown out the buying waves...furthering the idea of supply overcoming demand.
Point #4 shows the most down volume since the early January selloff but I don't see it as being overtly bearish because that volume occurred below support as the downward thrust was shortening. In other words, prices failed to make any real progress to the downside. Such action, combined with large volume, indicates that buyers were absorbing the selling. That view proved correct and we've moved up ever since.
Now here we are back at point #1. Volume on upmoves have reemerged but I believe that such volume is indicative of a buying climax rather than strong buying. Therefore, I conclude that a correction is coming but I don't think that it's gonna occur right now. Besides, betting on a downmove at resistance during an uptrend typically fails. For that reason, I'd like to see a strong move to the downside before considering a short. At the same time, if I were invested...I wouldn't want to be long either.
My official call would be that I'm neutral with a short bias.
It doesn't take a genius to see that the S&P has been in an uptrend since the selling climax to begin the year. The most recent action, however, is cause for alarm. In Point #1, what you see are prices going above a previous level of resistance. Some would say that's bullish but I'm skeptical of that because the nature of the rally looks tired...as if price has struggled to reach it's current level. What you would also notice is that volume on the current upwave is diminishing.
In point #2, I outlined a small area of consolidation (or, a trading range). As you can see, prices broke below the range, came back to test it and remained below the range until election night. This break also found support on at the 4/16 highs and continued that way until the volatility from the election. Before the election, as I just stated, prices broke below the range but take a look at point #3 and you'd see that the cumulative volume on that break was the most volume on a down move since the early January selloff (at that time). To me, that indicates that supply is entering the market. After the downwave volume at point #3, look how the selling waves continue to drown out the buying waves...furthering the idea of supply overcoming demand.
Point #4 shows the most down volume since the early January selloff but I don't see it as being overtly bearish because that volume occurred below support as the downward thrust was shortening. In other words, prices failed to make any real progress to the downside. Such action, combined with large volume, indicates that buyers were absorbing the selling. That view proved correct and we've moved up ever since.
Now here we are back at point #1. Volume on upmoves have reemerged but I believe that such volume is indicative of a buying climax rather than strong buying. Therefore, I conclude that a correction is coming but I don't think that it's gonna occur right now. Besides, betting on a downmove at resistance during an uptrend typically fails. For that reason, I'd like to see a strong move to the downside before considering a short. At the same time, if I were invested...I wouldn't want to be long either.
My official call would be that I'm neutral with a short bias.