If the trend continues, a dip down to the 200 , will mark wave (C) of C of 4 (technically "W" in terminology because this correction is a combination, and not a simple , or flat, or triangle). A healthy climb and retracement of the decline back to the 340 area marking "X", slightly extending the bounce off W that marked A of B of 4. Then a final deeper move back down to or into the .
A more alternative is that wave sub-move A of B of 4 is actually the "X" location. But that move was so quick, this is from where my hesitation arises. If that were the case, the approaching low in the 200 area, mark the "Y" conclusion of Wave 4. As long as this correction has drawn out, while it feels longer, it has only been a month.
Another continuin concern I have is the influence of BTC over the entire crypto currency space. There has been no resolution to the questions about whether a hard fork, the SegWit2x proposal, or other proposals will reach consensus prior to BIP148 activating August 1st. When BTC dives, the entire crypto currency space suffers, often more violently and at more extreme level of Beta. When BTC complete it's Wave III move, it dragged every other major crypto down with it, this was seen especially so during the decline to (A) of A of W and (C) of A of W for ETH. So if there are BTC problems, around August 1, as there is no "consensus" and instead the warring camping fight over BTC's future history, expect a third test of the for Ether.
But this correction is flummoxing my attempts to analyze it. :-)
My big problem with providing the analysis, the way I want to do it, is that this descent has been really linear. Look at this trend line. The decline should be clearly going in a zig-zag, or a triangle, or what's called a flat. And it doesn't count correctly. So, for me as an Elliott Wave Analyst, it's extremely frustrating, as I've expressed to @veilkrand
These are textbook corrections, granted, but I'm having difficulty assembling a combination that even makes sense.
1. The entire crypto space is undulating and sloshing around as BTC's future regarding BIP148 (a UASF scheduled to activate Aug 1), SegWit2X (initially a softfork on Aug 1, and a deferred hardfork some months out IF it goes according to plan), and the mining community hardfork proposal, are undecided. If BTC goes up, so does the space. If BTC goes down, so does the space.
Bitcoin.org is warning about potential hard forks, the network disruptions, etc. after July 31.
2. I cannot establish an Elliott Wave count I like that is supportive or indicates a bottom as being in for ETH. The exception might be, MIGHT BE a bounce off the channel bottom, which may be an expanding or reverse falling wedge. But right now I see NO reason(s) to be bullish.
Maybe bad news to BTC is good news for ETH, maybe bad news for BTC is good news for ETH. So far, Bad News for BTC is bad news for the prices of all major and many minor crypto. I cannot find a single coin to clearly, unambiguously trades on it's own.
Bigger picture regarding analysis, I need to do a whole new ETH post for the revised wave count shown in Updates posted here:
At this point, ETH has no mojo. Even though BTC has rallied to near it's old high, ETH has failed to do so. This is pretty clearly due to the difference in wave cycle phase. My revised count is based up the older data that effectively advanced the count from a 3 to a 5, completing a larger cycle (1). ETH is now in wave (2). Boo-hoo, a terrible (2).