Market sentiment on Finex is at Equilibrium. Not many people want to short at those levels so longs are slowly stacking up.
Got partially filled so lets set this active.
1) Till now there is a bearish DIV on 150m
2) Alts are about to complete 5 waves up
3) Bitcoin found resistance on the 0.786 retracement
It could be done correcting, like Bitcoin, but the retracements are very shallow so its less likely.
I will just leave the expanding diagonal scenario here in case it plays out, take profits if you were long from a good entry.
Keep an eye on the shorts, they are below support, they should start pilling up here before a last leg down, so there is more upside, ideally. Will try to fit a count but its hard because of the orthodox low. Its either the 3rd ending somewhere here, or an extension on the fifth.
I was asked yesterday what i use to spot a top or bottom. Truth is i use a bunch of staff but primarily Fibs and EW. Fibs are powerful, you can swing trade based on fibs and horizontal support/resistances zones alone. Adding EW to fibs helps you on drawing the correct ones and finding correlations between them. A zone where there are too many fibs based on EW rules is a very strong support/resistance zone that you should respect. Horizontals wont always find those and if you think they do find them, then you might wanna check the lines you have drawn, cause they are over 4, which means too many, and the "zone" is not a zone anymore but a 500+ area on 6k asset.
But, no matter how good you are with EW and spotting the structure, there is always the chance for a low probability scenario happening. Not to mention there is ALWAYS the subjectivity of the trader. You can have 100+ years of EW trading, 500 titles of "EW certified", it means nothing to me, you can have the same results with even less experience. Experience is just a matter of time and progress is not linear meaning that the more time you spend doesn't mean that you ALWAYS get more experience. Yes, that is true in the beginning when you know almost nothing but diminishing returns kick in later on when there is even less things to learn on a theory that DOESN'T EVOLVE.
Anyway, this almost got off topic, my point is that there is always the probability of the main scenario not playing out or having structures (like the current ones on Bitcoin and Ethereum) where the structure is uncertain or has many alternative scenarios. As an EW trader you DON'T want to trade those. But as a trader that spots a nice long/short opportunity you either use more simple or more advanced method to enter a trade. Personally i don't like simple methods because they don't work for me, the more advanced it is the more comfortable I'm for the trade. And since we are closer to 2050 than 1970 i have been working and i will keep working on new indicators or using the BEST out of the old ones and improve them.
Yeah, yeah i know... indicators dont work and price action + volume is key and blah blah dont burst my bubble sir. Thats very funny actually because the majority of trades are being handled by algorithms. What are the chances of those bots "reading price action" ? None.
Below there are some additions to the classic RSI that make it more predictive than a relative strength oscillator, and as you can see it works like a charm on ETHUSD pair on the 15H time frame. Now you may ask why 15H and not 12H. The differences are minimal but the settings are adjusted for "non-popular" time frames. Its not perfect and still a work in progress and one of the tools i use the most to anticipate the next move or call a top/bottom.