Earlier today on S.C., we sent out a swing trade long idea to our followers for BTC . The reason why we are not calling this market, even if it triggers is because it would be the same as buying more BTC . As as we are, we still respect the environmental limitations imposed by the short term structures that are still .
In this market, these structures are the and the 581 level (.382 of current structure). As I have been writing about in the other coins, until these areas are taken out, expectations are more appropriate on the conservative side.
Being conservative comes in many forms. Tighter profit targets, smaller positions or waiting it out until the general environment changes are some ways to be conservative.
Keep in mind we are also managing a portfolio of inventory across multiple coins. We have been increasing our long term coin count which is also a consideration when we account for our overall risk.
For those who are interested in this market, if the 475.50 level is taken out, that is a long signal in terms of our methodology. Since I am not calling an official trade idea, I am not going into the reward/risk details. I will say that IF price clears the 500 level, a conservative target in the low 520s is within reason.
In summary, earlier on S.C., I mentioned the short sighted nature of the herd through trend following indicators. Like I wrote, they have their place, but understand their limitations. They will not account for the probability of the general location where these markets continue to fluctuate. Just like they did not warn of the 1424 peak. Common sense, best practices and levels at least offered a clue. These lows are the same situation in reverse. There is more to timing markets than consuming news, following "experts" and reacting to lines on a chart.
Seems like it would be much easier to set a limit order, and then if you happen to be around you could check on it and/or cancel it to place you own?
Perhaps it's time to find a better exchange?