Elliot Wave 5... ABC Correction Coming Soon???

COINBASE:ETHUSD   Ethereum / U.S. Dollar
I know everyone is super bullish right now so I'm not sure if anyone is open to hearing this... but, it looks like we're in the middle of wave 5 with a target of around $1150. After that, we might be looking at revisiting the long term support formed in the previous ascending triangle (yellow line).

History shows that ETH tested the $400 level then returned to this trend line for two complete cycles before breaking out of the triangle.

I want to hear your thoughts on the possibility that this could happen again at a resistance of about $1200 then trace back to the $450ish level in the first quarter of 2018.

To me the charts look eerily similar...

And with the Christmas FOMO sale hitting the $450 levels it doesn't seem that far-fetched to me that we revisit these lows before moving on.

What are your thoughts?
Update 1.5.18

There is also a pretty clear RSI divergence on the daily

Update 1.5.18

Head and shoulders forming. Let's see if we start correction wave A. Too early to tell for certain but I've taken profits and pulled out in anticipation. My logic is that I'm ok missing out on a run to $1150 but I'm not ok with missing a $650 buy opportunity.

Isn't one of the rules that the correction will normally settle where wave 4 ended? So wouldn't the mark be more around the 650 range?
+1 Reply
rlocsin1286 coachdynamite28
@coachdynamite28, I just guesstimated the ABC points and based the complete retrace back to the long term trend line on the last 2 cycles it tested a major all time high of $400. For it to fall back to the $450 range, it would have to trace beyond the 0.786 fib mark which statistically speaking is not a highly probable. If it does hit that price, odds are it would only stay there for a second.

My plan is to try to get most of my money in at the 600 range but I'm also going to try to catch a sub $500 buy with a small percentage of my stack using a limit order.

Assuming any of this comes true haha....
if I've learned anything the last 2 weeks, it's that the bulls always win
rlocsin1286 armenhammer21
@armenhammer21, haha true statement
Amit26 armenhammer21
@armenhammer21, Just 2 weeks of learning is not enough. You will learn over the next few weeks that bulls DO NOT always win.
There are periods of bull run and then there are periods of bear run.
@Amit26, well I've had investments since May of last year. I know it goes down. I was just saying that because the price just wouldn't stay down consistently so I could get more ether for buying low. I missed the crash on the 22nd and then after that there was only one period where it went down, and during that time GDAX never got as low as the other exchanges, so that didn't help me there.
rlocsin1286 armenhammer21
@Amit26 I was being sarcastic under the assumption that @armenhammer21 was also haha.

@armenhammer21 Check out the related idea I tagged to this one. It speculates on and to some degree predicts the Christmas crash :)
I think it depends on timing and how BTC does. TA all we want, a lot of times it just comes down to circumstance. If we see ETH hitting a correction right as BTC begins to take off again... I think the ETH dip (and subsequent price movement) will be more pronounced. If BTC is still stagnant, I think it will not retrace as deeply. That’s just my non-technical sentiment on the situation.
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