In 2017, ETH saw similar move, followed by a move down, a move up, and then a move down again at the exact time of the upgrade.
Presently, we have already seen a move up in December, a move down when the upgrade was delayed, a move up based on the news of upcoming upgrade, and a -20% move down prior to the expected upgrade date on Thursday.
In 2017, ETH price action too saw a -20% or so move during the uncertainty around the upgrade. Will ETH continue to trade sideways after the upgrade like it did in 2017, or will this Bullish Butterfly play out. Price action is flirting with the middle band on TDI , and a break below here I think would certainly send price action down but it has not (broke below) yet - even with a good separation of the fast moving average (red) from the slow (green) (Bullish/Bearish) .
Lotta folks in TA are for ETH based of this and that indicator. Personally I've been following the since $103 price range with a qualifying and validating structure. There also hasn't been much pop from the recent move down like there was in the early December rally which I would think puts demand much lower than current price action support based on expectations/uncertainty of the upgrade.
Good luck, Traders. May you find yourself on the profitable side of it.
TDI Comparison - Previous ETH Hard Fork: