Ethereum - let’s reassess the situation: new scenario
Our previous scenario on ethereum is linked below (and on the chart above on those cool yellow triangles!). Since then price has not exactly did as we expected, so we haven’t entered any position yet. We’re currently hanging on to our previous invalidation zone, and we got there in a manner that reeks of exhaustion. Let’s have a closer look at the situation and see what new information the market has given us.
Daily
Let’s first just look at the price action and ichimoku. Price has been rejected from the bottom of the thick kumo. but is at the moment being held by the previous low, indicated by yesterdays long wick.We will need to wait for this to be confirmed by another candle. At the moment we’re still inside yesterdays candle, as long as that remains that way, we’re relatively safe…
Kijun and tenkan are flat, so we expect price to bounce back up to them eventually. Chikou span is in open space, indicating there is still bearish potential.
All this being said, we’re still looking for a bullish entry. Ichimoko doesn’t give us any clues to that yet, except perhaps the flattening of all lines and the thinning of the kumo. We expect sideways action, and then eventually a kumo break. Possibly through the flatter part of the kumo.
One of the reasons we’ve been anticipating a move up by ETH is because Bitcoin did. The correlation between these pairs suggests that ETH should make up for the move it didn't have. We’ll get into this more deeply another time. Now let’s look at the setup on a daily timeframe
We’re looking for a retracement of the last move up, towards around 620. We expect some resistance on the way, but before get into projecting more exact targets, we need to see the move start. We holding onto some previous support levels, as well as the 1:1 extension of the previous swing down. Price has maybe some more momentum for a push down to the 1.272 level, so again, we have to wait for confirmation signals to enter. We can enter long in this zone between the 1 and 1.272 extensions, or wait for a breakout of the breakout level. This will give a higher probability that of reaching our target. In either case we’ll have to wait for some kind of signal for this scenario to turn into a trade
2HR
The 2 HR timeframe shows the breakout level around the top of the kumo, and a thick kumo beneath. This tells us that we’re probably going to have a range-behaviour behaviour, waiting for the kumo to flatten out or perhaps reach into the kumo and range there for a while.
Either way, I know it sounds boring, but we have to wait for our signals before we can enter.
If price chooses to move beyond the 1.272 extension level we’ll invalidate the scenario and see how we can reposition ourselves.
Daily
Let’s first just look at the price action and ichimoku. Price has been rejected from the bottom of the thick kumo. but is at the moment being held by the previous low, indicated by yesterdays long wick.We will need to wait for this to be confirmed by another candle. At the moment we’re still inside yesterdays candle, as long as that remains that way, we’re relatively safe…
Kijun and tenkan are flat, so we expect price to bounce back up to them eventually. Chikou span is in open space, indicating there is still bearish potential.
All this being said, we’re still looking for a bullish entry. Ichimoko doesn’t give us any clues to that yet, except perhaps the flattening of all lines and the thinning of the kumo. We expect sideways action, and then eventually a kumo break. Possibly through the flatter part of the kumo.
One of the reasons we’ve been anticipating a move up by ETH is because Bitcoin did. The correlation between these pairs suggests that ETH should make up for the move it didn't have. We’ll get into this more deeply another time. Now let’s look at the setup on a daily timeframe
We’re looking for a retracement of the last move up, towards around 620. We expect some resistance on the way, but before get into projecting more exact targets, we need to see the move start. We holding onto some previous support levels, as well as the 1:1 extension of the previous swing down. Price has maybe some more momentum for a push down to the 1.272 level, so again, we have to wait for confirmation signals to enter. We can enter long in this zone between the 1 and 1.272 extensions, or wait for a breakout of the breakout level. This will give a higher probability that of reaching our target. In either case we’ll have to wait for some kind of signal for this scenario to turn into a trade
2HR
The 2 HR timeframe shows the breakout level around the top of the kumo, and a thick kumo beneath. This tells us that we’re probably going to have a range-behaviour behaviour, waiting for the kumo to flatten out or perhaps reach into the kumo and range there for a while.
Either way, I know it sounds boring, but we have to wait for our signals before we can enter.
If price chooses to move beyond the 1.272 extension level we’ll invalidate the scenario and see how we can reposition ourselves.
Comment:
Looks like a rejection candle forming on the daily. 12 more hours to go, let's see where this takes us. No signals yet on the smaller timeframes
Comment:
We had no entry signal, and price has pushed through the invalidation level. If we don't bounce back into the buy zone tomorrow we can invalidate this scenario and reassess the situation.
Order cancelled:
Price invalidated the scenario.
There will be a new scenario and setup when we see an opportunity to safely enter the market.
There will be a new scenario and setup when we see an opportunity to safely enter the market.
