EURUSD How to trade the rest of the month

At the start of November I posted the trading plan for the month:


As you see, since the 1.15220 Support (then Triple Bottom) broke, EURUSD hit the 1.14470 downside Target which has (so far) made a perfect Low on the June Lower Lows (June LL) trend-line.

This brings me to this analysis where I will lay out the trading plan and possibilities for the rest of November.

The June Lower Lows trend-line is part of a wider Channel Down within which the pair has been trading since June 16. I call that Channel Down (B) (blue pattern). It is (B) because a little earlier than that, since the June 01 High, we can draw another Channel Down, which I call (A) (dashed lines). As you see, Channel Down (A) has a better fit on its Lower Highs (red arrows), while Channel Down (B) on its Lower Lows (green arrows), which is practically the June LL trend-line that helped us come up with the 1.15220 downside target.

The possibilities are two:

* As long as the June LL trend-line holds, there are more chances for a rebound towards first 1.1600 (where contact with the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) may be made) and if Channel Down (A) breaks its dashed Lower Highs trend-line, then one last extension towards the 1.1690 Resistance. This would follow a fractal from the previous Lower High on September 03 where the price made a Double Top.

* If the June LL trend-line breaks, then Channel Down (B) gets invalidated and the price will most likely seek the Lower Lows trend-line of Channel Down (A) towards 1.13000.



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