In a complete U-turn from its reaction to hawkish Powell testimony last week, markets today struggle to price one further 25bp hike from the Fed. This is a far cry from the +75-100bp of extra tightening seen last week. The re-pricing of the Fed is understandable as US authorities struggle to put a floor under the evolving banking crisis. Indeed, the KBW regional banking index is off another 10% today – not what authorities wanted to see after promising at the weekend to make all depositors whole and introducing new liquidity provisioning schemes.
This dramatic re-pricing of the Fed cycle has outpaced anything seen amongst European monetary cycles and delivered a huge narrowing in two-year EUR:USD swap differentials. Normally rates at the short end of the curve are solid drivers of exchange rates (signifying the path of respective monetary policy) and the sharply narrower spread would be expected to drive EUR/USD a lot higher. EUR/USD has turned around from its 1.0525 lows seen last week, but what is stopping it from trading substantially through 1.08? We think a look at the key short-term drivers of EUR/USD provides the answers.
EURUSD h1 price is in an uptrend. Early today it is possible that the pair will have a short correction and then continue to move up. Currently traders can wait to buy around 1.0690, SL: 1.0650, TP: 1.0750
This dramatic re-pricing of the Fed cycle has outpaced anything seen amongst European monetary cycles and delivered a huge narrowing in two-year EUR:USD swap differentials. Normally rates at the short end of the curve are solid drivers of exchange rates (signifying the path of respective monetary policy) and the sharply narrower spread would be expected to drive EUR/USD a lot higher. EUR/USD has turned around from its 1.0525 lows seen last week, but what is stopping it from trading substantially through 1.08? We think a look at the key short-term drivers of EUR/USD provides the answers.
EURUSD h1 price is in an uptrend. Early today it is possible that the pair will have a short correction and then continue to move up. Currently traders can wait to buy around 1.0690, SL: 1.0650, TP: 1.0750
