After a very bearish end to the week for EURUSD I am updating the Daily chart with our latest targets at 1.0905. Timing wise we are positioned for ECB which is expected very dovish as Europe is struggling on many fronts...
=> EZ growth subdued in Q418 and expected to remain low for Q119; Italy already in technical recession whilst Germany touching cloth.
=> Industrial production fell in Q4 pushing the expected technical recession to the front seat.
=> Bottlenecks in the car industry on the supply side
=> Household spending falling with consumer confidence
On the ECB side there is no hikes expected this year or next, a view they do not seem to be pushing back against. Inflation pressures are muted and the turn in oil will provide more relief to firms. Remember we have more TLTROs coming next week.
From the technical angle, we are still trading a retrace leg in this uptrend from the Feb 2018 highs meaning the odds of parity and below are unexpected and I will be looking for longs towards the end of Q2 / early Q3. I have attached the monthly and weekly EURUSD and DXY charts below which explain this in more depth.
Feel free to open the macro discussion here for the main event next week!
=> EZ growth subdued in Q418 and expected to remain low for Q119; Italy already in technical recession whilst Germany touching cloth.
=> Industrial production fell in Q4 pushing the expected technical recession to the front seat.
=> Bottlenecks in the car industry on the supply side
=> Household spending falling with consumer confidence
On the ECB side there is no hikes expected this year or next, a view they do not seem to be pushing back against. Inflation pressures are muted and the turn in oil will provide more relief to firms. Remember we have more TLTROs coming next week.
From the technical angle, we are still trading a retrace leg in this uptrend from the Feb 2018 highs meaning the odds of parity and below are unexpected and I will be looking for longs towards the end of Q2 / early Q3. I have attached the monthly and weekly EURUSD and DXY charts below which explain this in more depth.
Feel free to open the macro discussion here for the main event next week!
Comment:
Nice moves coming here, we are in tune across the FX board.
Comment:
ECB outlook being cut ... TLTRO's in play ... perfect setup for tomorrow!
Comment:
"TLTRO's in play" confirmed... 1.09 in the scope
Trade closed: target reached
