EURUSD update on long-term thesis. Deadcat bouce after the NFP?

Last time I updated my long-term perspective (on the 1W time-frame) on EURUSD was in July, when the price was still struggling to break above the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and presented the idea that the long-term price action might follow the Q3/Q4 2018 bearish fractal:


As you see the pair followed the fractal precisely as the 1W MA50 was never recovered from its last rejection and the price made consecutive Lower Lows.

On the August 13 2018 1W candle, EURUSD broke marginally below the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) but recovered instantly on the same week and that initiated a rally (or dead-cat bounce if you like) back near the previous Resistance (1.18575), still below the 1W MA50. Then the downtrend was resumed with many successive Lower Lows until the COVID market bottom.

Right now the pair is on a similar situation with the current 1W candle making a wick below the 1W MA200. If it recovers before the week closes (of course much will depend upon the Nonfarm Payrolls report which will be released on Friday), then we might have a similar situation as mid August 2018, i.e. a dead cat bounce towards the Resistance which is currently at 1.1910. This thesis holds unless the price breaks (and closes a week) above the 1W MA50, which invalidates the downtrend.


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