Top Headlines for June 14:
US Dollar Index clings to gains around the 90.00 region
US President's infrastructure spending proposal in focus
US Dollar Index Price Analysis: DXY extends bounce off nearby support line to tease 90.00
EUR/USD to bask a recovery as the monster is not as scary as it seems
France Current Account above forecasts (€-2.7B) in April: Actual (€-1.4B)
France Imports, EUR: €46.851B (April) vs €46.05B
Upcoming market reports:
Date - Report - Forecast - Previous - Impact
0 2021-06-15 12:30 UTC USD Core Retail Sales m/m 0.4% -0.8% High
1 2021-06-15 12:30 UTC USD Retail Sales m/m -0.6% 0.0% High
2 2021-06-15 12:30 UTC USD PPI m/m 0.5% 0.6% High
3 2021-06-15 12:30 UTC USD Core PPI m/m 0.5% 0.7% Medium
4 2021-06-15 13:15 UTC USD Industrial Production m/m 0.6% 0.7% Medium
5 2021-06-16 14:30 UTC USD Crude Oil Inventories X -5.2M Medium
6 2021-06-16 18:00 UTC USD FOMC Statement High
7 2021-06-16 18:00 UTC USD FOMC Economic Projections High
8 2021-06-16 18:30 UTC USD FOMC Press Conference High
9 2021-06-17 12:30 UTC USD Unemployment Claims 360K 376K Medium
10 2021-06-17 12:30 UTC USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index 31.2 31.5 Medium
There is no high-impact or medium-impact news scheduled for EUR this week.
EURUSD is trading well in balance with 2-year yield differentials. However, the US yield curve has shown falling yields for all maturities in the last 5 trading days, which could further increase selling pressure in the USD ( for EURUSD ). The USD index has also failed to break above the weekly 90.60 resistance this morning.
Currency Strength Index:
While not a top-performer, EUR is trading near daily highs as positive risk sentiment generally favored risk currencies this morning. The US dollar has entered a short-term downtrend, signaling further upside potential for EURUSD .
The EURUSD pair found support at the 61.8% Fib level of the latest daily impulse move and formed a pattern on the short-term chart.
Buyers started to push the price higher as the USD gave back some gains from Friday. The gains were made on relatively low , signaling that selling power and/or liquidity was quite low.
== HOW TO TRADE? ==
We favor a long position in EURUSD given the strong support at the 61.8% Fib level and the pattern.
Lower fears and a Fed that could be on hold on Wednesday (potentially further postponing quantitative tapering) could provide a strong move in the EURUSD pair.
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