MujkanovicFX

EUR/USD FIST Analysis for June 14: What you need to know

Long
FX:EURUSD   Euro / U.S. Dollar
Hi traders, here is an update for EURUSD for today and the current week. We analyzed fundamentals, yields, sentiment, and technical levels and showed how we would trade the pair. Enjoy!

FUNDAMENTALS:
Top Headlines for June 14:

US Dollar Index clings to gains around the 90.00 region
US President's infrastructure spending proposal in focus
US Dollar Index Price Analysis: DXY extends bounce off nearby support line to tease 90.00
EUR/USD to bask a recovery as the inflation monster is not as scary as it seems
France Current Account above forecasts (€-2.7B) in April: Actual (€-1.4B)
France Imports, EUR: €46.851B (April) vs €46.05B

Upcoming market reports:
Date - Report - Forecast - Previous - Impact
0 2021-06-15 12:30 UTC USD Core Retail Sales m/m 0.4% -0.8% High
1 2021-06-15 12:30 UTC USD Retail Sales m/m -0.6% 0.0% High
2 2021-06-15 12:30 UTC USD PPI m/m 0.5% 0.6% High
3 2021-06-15 12:30 UTC USD Core PPI m/m 0.5% 0.7% Medium
4 2021-06-15 13:15 UTC USD Industrial Production m/m 0.6% 0.7% Medium
5 2021-06-16 14:30 UTC USD Crude Oil Inventories X -5.2M Medium
6 2021-06-16 18:00 UTC USD FOMC Statement High
7 2021-06-16 18:00 UTC USD FOMC Economic Projections High
8 2021-06-16 18:30 UTC USD FOMC Press Conference High
9 2021-06-17 12:30 UTC USD Unemployment Claims 360K 376K Medium
10 2021-06-17 12:30 UTC USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index 31.2 31.5 Medium

There is no high-impact or medium-impact news scheduled for EUR this week.

INTERMARKET:


EURUSD is trading well in balance with 2-year yield differentials. However, the US yield curve has shown falling yields for all maturities in the last 5 trading days, which could further increase selling pressure in the USD ( bullish for EURUSD ). The USD index has also failed to break above the weekly 90.60 resistance this morning.

Currency Strength Index:


While not a top-performer, EUR is trading near daily highs as positive risk sentiment generally favored risk currencies this morning. The US dollar has entered a short-term downtrend, signaling further upside potential for EURUSD .

TECHNICALS
Price-Action:

The EURUSD pair found support at the 61.8% Fib level of the latest daily impulse move and formed a double bottom pattern on the short-term chart.

Buyers started to push the price higher as the USD gave back some gains from Friday. The gains were made on relatively low volume , signaling that selling power and/or liquidity was quite low.

== HOW TO TRADE? ==

We favor a long position in EURUSD given the strong support at the 61.8% Fib level and the double bottom pattern.

Lower inflation fears and a Fed that could be on hold on Wednesday (potentially further postponing quantitative tapering) could provide a strong bullish move in the EURUSD pair.

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