EUR/USD Technical and Fundamental Analysis: It's all about ECB..

Fundamental View

This week has scheduled to see three central banks (Australian Reserve - European Central Bank - Bank of England) publish their monetary policy, regarded as literally a game-changer for the global economy. In addition to the January US NFP statistics, the first week of February begins tomorrow, Tuesday.

Last week's Federal Reserve Bank of the United States provided a map and some scattered statistics, but FED didn't make any public pronouncements.


However, although keeping its monetary policy unaltered at its January meeting, the US Federal Reserve turned out to be more hawkish than the market expected. As a result, there has been no change in monetary policy (why has the dollar increased).



Last Friday, the US dollar's general index closed at 97.20 levels but tested 97.43, its highest level since June of last year, and it is currently trading at 97.00 levels on Monday when I am writing this analysis, the start of the week.


The European Central Bank and its president, Christine Lagarde, will meet Thursday to discuss monetary policy, in contrast to other central banks that have met in the past.

There is no urgent need to change the direction of monetary policy at the European Central Bank, as Lagarde has repeatedly stated that she does not expect a hike in interest rates until at least the first half of 2023 despite rising inflation in the euro region.

According to preliminary estimates, inflation in the eurozone fell to 4.4% in January from 5%. In addition, the core index fell from 2.6% to 1.8%. These numbers are scheduled to be released one session before the meeting in the European session on Wednesday.

This week, the euro will suffer the most against the dollar and the pound sterling due to the widening gap between the ECB and the rest of the world's central banks.

EUR/USD Technical View

EUR/USD is below its previous support level of the 1.1200 price zone. And from the present rate, minor trend line resistance is at 1.1200/1.1230 price zone.

Suppose ECB is unable to deliver any optimistic or hawkish statement. In that case, it will be a common scenario that EUR/USD will drop again, testing its minor trendline resistance zone of 1.1200/1.1230 price zone.

Strong trendline support is at the 1.1050/1.1000 price zone from the present scenario. And strong trendline resistance is at 1.1350/1.1400 price zone.

It is challenging for EUR/USD to test again 1.1350/1.1400 in the current circumstance. If so, technically, it will be an excellent chance to sell EUR/USD from the strong trendline resistance zone of 1.1350/1.1400 price zone.

But if the ECB doesn't convince the optimistic statement as expected, EUR/USD may break below its strong trendline support of 1.1050.1.1000 price zone.

Though I am not expecting it will be accessible to break below the 1.1050/1.1000 price zone without some correction to the upside.

But, if ECB delivers a too dovish statement, EUR/USD will drop below the 1.1050/1.1000 price zone and test the 1.0850/1.0800 price zone in February.

Note: Both technically and fundamentally, EUR is under pressure, there is no doubt. But monetary policy is always a game-changing fact in the forex market. So unless ECB tries to convince investors, EUR/USD is not too far to test 1.1050 this week.

Caution: This is not financial advice or signals. This is just my personal view and education purpose only. I am not responsible to follow me blindly.

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