flooding USD supply side and we are going see a sharp reversal triggered here with momentum on the channel break in Q120.
Lets start by digging deeper into how we got here; those who have followed my post since 2018 will remember the Long Term EURUSD chart:
After an exhaustive 2nd wave via protectionism fuelling trade war outflows and causing European macro numbers to ran out of steam, we FINALLY started to find a floor via ECB Tiering:
For those with an understanding in waves, you will notice the picture is a lot clearer on the weekly:
Although expensive with rollovers the lows have been very tradable, a loud well done all those who caught the initial breakout which we traded live here:
Support for USD is starting to run out... with all roads leading to weakness the highs in DXY are likely set for a very long time. We are trading the very highs in the range on the monthly chart, it's crunch time.
The USD 2019 Macro Chartbook:
We are sitting at the loading zone for year-end, for the flows and target-wise I am aiming for 1.16xx in Q420 and beyond 1.20xx into 2021. Invalidation for the trade will come in below 1.095xx and reassessment of the view will only be necessary if we break through the gap from 2017 French Elections (both are highly unlikely to test now as USD devaluation has already begun via repo crisis).
Plenty of resistance above the market, I would expect chop to continue into January and with liquidity dry we can look to add to our longs when participants return to their desks on 27th. Good luck to those trading EURUSD in 2020 and already in longs or for those waiting patiently on the sidelines for the breakout to form.
As usual thanks sooo much for keeping your support coming with likes and jumping into the comments!