EURUSD remains in larger bearish cycle that whilst very mature still has some downside potential, which could be seen in my last chart published about a month ago with possible 1.04 - 1.03 downside target (see link below).
Since forming March 2013 low, it has been in larger congestion zone. Many are anticipating possible larger triangle formation which is entirely possible.
However, I am working on the premise that we have abc zigzag retracement which could have ended with 6th April high. If correct then we have wave 1 impulsive decline and subsequent retracement of 78.6% nearly complete for wave 2 or could do so very soon.
It has been observed that many weekly highs and low are formed on Monday or Friday. I am assuming that it could gap up on open today or just move up in to our shorting zone and then sell off in process forming weekly high and potential swing for reversal.
So here is the summary:
1. Retraced 78.6% of previous swing and also others fibs ratio confluence.
2. ABC retracement zigzag is almost complete with wave "C" potentially forming a rising wedge (ending diagonal - see 1Hr chart for details below) which could have bit more upside room.
3. RSI is coiling at higher level into declining resistance line.
4. Ideal entry around 1.09 -1.0920 or better.
5. However, if we get price much higher towards 1.1 then we will be close to invalidation point and might need a review of analysis.
If the setup work then potential downside targets:
1. Target 1 = 1.055
2. Target 2 = 1.044
Could this decline line up with disappointment or lack of progress on Greece issue? We will see in the meantime look forward to seeing this trade work for us.
As always, do your own analysis for your trade requirement. Select to follow me and the chart for notification of future updates. If you like the analysis then please indicate this by thumbs up, constructive comments and sharing with others. If you have an alternative idea then please share for all to learn from.
Thank you for taking the time to read my analysis.
DanV
danv-charting.com
Since forming March 2013 low, it has been in larger congestion zone. Many are anticipating possible larger triangle formation which is entirely possible.
However, I am working on the premise that we have abc zigzag retracement which could have ended with 6th April high. If correct then we have wave 1 impulsive decline and subsequent retracement of 78.6% nearly complete for wave 2 or could do so very soon.
It has been observed that many weekly highs and low are formed on Monday or Friday. I am assuming that it could gap up on open today or just move up in to our shorting zone and then sell off in process forming weekly high and potential swing for reversal.
So here is the summary:
1. Retraced 78.6% of previous swing and also others fibs ratio confluence.
2. ABC retracement zigzag is almost complete with wave "C" potentially forming a rising wedge (ending diagonal - see 1Hr chart for details below) which could have bit more upside room.
3. RSI is coiling at higher level into declining resistance line.
4. Ideal entry around 1.09 -1.0920 or better.
5. However, if we get price much higher towards 1.1 then we will be close to invalidation point and might need a review of analysis.
If the setup work then potential downside targets:
1. Target 1 = 1.055
2. Target 2 = 1.044
Could this decline line up with disappointment or lack of progress on Greece issue? We will see in the meantime look forward to seeing this trade work for us.
As always, do your own analysis for your trade requirement. Select to follow me and the chart for notification of future updates. If you like the analysis then please indicate this by thumbs up, constructive comments and sharing with others. If you have an alternative idea then please share for all to learn from.
Thank you for taking the time to read my analysis.
DanV
danv-charting.com
