DanV
Short

EURUSD - POTENTIAL SHORTING OPPORTUNITY

FX:EURUSD   Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
EURUSD             remains in larger bearish cycle that whilst very mature still has some downside potential, which could be seen in my last chart published about a month ago with possible 1.04 - 1.03 downside target (see link below).

Since forming March 2013 low, it has been in larger congestion zone. Many are anticipating possible larger triangle formation which is entirely possible.

However, I am working on the premise that we have abc zigzag retracement which could have ended with 6th April high. If correct then we have wave 1 impulsive decline and subsequent retracement of 78.6% nearly complete for wave 2 or could do so very soon.

It has been observed that many weekly highs and low are formed on Monday or Friday. I am assuming that it could gap up on open today or just move up in to our shorting zone and then sell off in process forming weekly high and potential swing for reversal.

So here is the summary:

1. Retraced 78.6% of previous swing and also others fibs ratio confluence.
2. ABC retracement zigzag is almost complete with wave "C" potentially forming a rising wedge (ending diagonal - see 1Hr chart for details below) which could have bit more upside room.
3. RSI is coiling at higher level into declining resistance line.
4. Ideal entry around 1.09 -1.0920 or better.
5. However, if we get price much higher towards 1.1 then we will be close to invalidation point and might need a review of analysis.

If the setup work then potential downside targets:
1. Target 1 = 1.055
2. Target 2 = 1.044

Could this decline line up with disappointment or lack of progress on Greece issue? We will see in the meantime look forward to seeing this trade work for us.

As always, do your own analysis for your trade requirement. Select to follow me and the chart for notification of future updates. If you like the analysis then please indicate this by thumbs up, constructive comments and sharing with others. If you have an alternative idea then please share for all to learn from.

Thank you for taking the time to read my analysis.

DanV
danv-charting.com
DanV MOD
2 years ago
EURUSD Hourly chart referred to
snapshot
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DanV MOD
2 years ago
DXY daily chart referred to
snapshot
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Interesting, thanks for sharing.
I'm thinking the next move is decisive, should help us confirm what we're working with now.

I see a complete 5 waves decline since the top in EURUSD, backed by the fundamental situation and important correlations, and not just in eurusd, but probable reversals in multiple eur pairs.

EURUSD: Extended fifth wave decline complete?


The only thing planting a seed of doubt in my mind is the crude oil chart:
Maybe it doesn't have to correlate with this corrective euro strength move?

Crude oil: intermarket analysis
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DanV MOD IvanLabrie
2 years ago
Thank you for your comment and charts. I thing you are correct in that several EUR pairs could be reversing or are close to depending on relative strength or weakness of respective pair.

Oil being USD denominated would have some correlation and think that like EURUSD is also retracing in wave 4 with final wave 5 to downside to follow which could coincide with DXY topping too.

However you are right in keeping tabs on these and seeing some clarification in price actin which has been rather confusing as wave 4 often tends to be.

Thanks once again.
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IvanLabrie TOP DanV
2 years ago
I'm sure we will catch the exact bottom once it's in. Just a matter of time. ;)
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DanV MOD IvanLabrie
2 years ago
Yes indeed and it would be a significant trend reversal, well worth waiting for it.
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IvanLabrie TOP DanV
2 years ago
snapshot


Meanwhile in EURNZD land...what do you think Dan?
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DanV MOD IvanLabrie
2 years ago
Possible minor wave 5 in progress and would expect a retracement for long entry. But definitely worth to keep a lookout. Sane with EURAUD.
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IvanLabrie TOP DanV
2 years ago
Yes!

Smaller degree leading diagonal wave 1, sharp wave 2 and then wave 3 and 4 stopped right over the top of wave 1 high. Has been following every rule thus far.
I'm in since 1.42209, took half off and will buy the retracement. :)
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DanV MOD IvanLabrie
2 years ago
Yes indeed. But we have bit if time for ti to complete 5 waves and retrace. But USD pairs are likely to tank to day.
This rising wedge so steep and at the maximum point. So real explosive reaction could be expected. With some comments that would suggest interest rate are now on the card. That would set rocket under DXY I thin
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IvanLabrie TOP DanV
2 years ago
snapshot


Extended five wave completion has some merit I think.
(as per my publication)

I'd rather be on the long side here. Or just stay out for now. (I didn't buy it, but will look into it as soon as it completes 5 waves up and corrects).
This being that Flat's C makes some sense to me.
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IvanLabrie TOP IvanLabrie
2 years ago
(wave II completion should be on the next low I believe)
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DanV MOD IvanLabrie
2 years ago
That wave 1 on your chart is an issue it looks more like wave abc with wave c as ending diagonal. Then we have steep rise but it is rising wedge. Hence the my worry but you follow your trade plan.
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IvanLabrie TOP DanV
2 years ago
Maybe, that's why I took EURNZD and not EURUSD yet...seemed more clear.
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IvanLabrie TOP IvanLabrie
2 years ago
Btw, check out my USDJPY if you can:

USDJPY: price at the daily mode - bar by bar analysis


Would value your insights on this one...also the Nikkei related idea. :)
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DanV MOD IvanLabrie
2 years ago
Excellent trade. Well Done.
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IvanLabrie TOP DanV
2 years ago
Thanks! The wave count is tricky in that one...wouldn't dare put labels on it.
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DanV MOD IvanLabrie
2 years ago
Agreed. On H4 we have potential symmetrical triangle also suggesting USD could gain.
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DanV MOD IvanLabrie
2 years ago
Wise choice.
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finitemonk PRO IvanLabrie
2 years ago
Hey Ivan, that's an interesting interpretation of crude. It correlates with what I think gold is going to do - have a crack at taking out the multiyear lows, and then zip back up again, all to form a B wave. I was watching a video at the weekend and they suggested agriculturals (though I don't trade them) also poised to drop.
+1 Reply
DanV MOD
2 years ago
UPDATE: Compared with the price action since market open this week it seems that we are gradually progressing to shorting zone and still potentially looking at rising wedge (ending diagonal). However we also note that from the last weeks high we declined in abc zigzag but also then bounced in abc zigzag, that suggest still corrective price action.

This is leading me to anticipate a potential minor triangle in wave iv as shown in the chart below. If correct, then on completion of this triangle of final leg to upside into shorting zone would follow. This would increase the probability of out proposed short. Here is the chart with details
snapshot
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DanV MOD
2 years ago
Update: The focus in now on 1.095 for completing of this ending diagonal.
Every swings in this are 3-3-3-3-3 (ending diagonal).
snapshot
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SunnyBTC PRO DanV
2 years ago
Was supposed to post this here, not on AUDUSD ;)
EURUSD Hidden Bearish divergence on 12hr
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DanV MOD
2 years ago
UPDATE: DXY has gone beyond the point of invalidation. so it could still be correcting in larger wave and EURUSD could not hit 1.1 and may be small retrace before going to 1.11 for completing this cycle which might turn into 5 wave cycle. So any entry short will be deferred and will review later. Sorry about the best laid plan did not work for now.
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IvanLabrie TOP DanV
2 years ago
Yes, I expected this based on crude oil...complex correction never ends! :/
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DanV MOD
2 years ago
UPDATE: I thought that the above chart will not work. However having reviewed the price action and wave counts I think it could till be in play though high risk but defined. So here goes.

Looking for an exiting possibility if with this wedge nearly complete. The whole pattern could be double zigzag
snapshot
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Pansyfaust
2 years ago
I think we can safely say this is invalidated :)
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DanV MOD Pansyfaust
2 years ago
Yes indeed and will revisit it later once the FOMC id over or may be weekend to see what happened in the terms of the wave counts and possibly what next.
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DanV MOD
2 years ago
Updated chart published
EURUSD - SHORTING RETRACEMENT IN NEW BULLISH CYCLE
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