Since forming March 2013 low, it has been in larger congestion zone. Many are anticipating possible larger triangle formation which is entirely possible.
However, I am working on the premise that we have abc retracement which could have ended with 6th April high. If correct then we have wave 1 impulsive decline and subsequent retracement of 78.6% nearly complete for wave 2 or could do so very soon.
It has been observed that many weekly highs and low are formed on Monday or Friday. I am assuming that it could gap up on open today or just move up in to our shorting zone and then sell off in process forming weekly high and potential swing for reversal.
So here is the summary:
1. Retraced 78.6% of previous swing and also others fibs ratio confluence.
2. ABC retracement is almost complete with wave "C" potentially forming a ( - see 1Hr chart for details below) which could have bit more upside room.
3. is coiling at higher level into declining resistance line.
4. Ideal entry around 1.09 -1.0920 or better.
5. However, if we get price much higher towards 1.1 then we will be close to invalidation point and might need a review of analysis.
If the setup work then potential downside targets:
1. Target 1 = 1.055
2. Target 2 = 1.044
Could this decline line up with disappointment or lack of progress on Greece issue? We will see in the meantime look forward to seeing this trade work for us.
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Looking for an exiting possibility if with this wedge nearly complete. The whole pattern could be double zigzag
This is leading me to anticipate a potential minor triangle in wave iv as shown in the chart below. If correct, then on completion of this triangle of final leg to upside into shorting zone would follow. This would increase the probability of out proposed short. Here is the chart with details
I'm thinking the next move is decisive, should help us confirm what we're working with now.
I see a complete 5 waves decline since the top in EURUSD, backed by the fundamental situation and important correlations, and not just in eurusd, but probable reversals in multiple eur pairs.
The only thing planting a seed of doubt in my mind is the crude oil chart:
Maybe it doesn't have to correlate with this corrective euro strength move?