FX:EURUSD   Euro / U.S. Dollar
EURUSD             remains in larger bearish cycle that whilst very mature still has some downside potential, which could be seen in my last chart published about a month ago with possible 1.04 - 1.03 downside target (see link below).

Since forming March 2013 low, it has been in larger congestion zone. Many are anticipating possible larger triangle formation which is entirely possible.

However, I am working on the premise that we have abc zigzag retracement which could have ended with 6th             April high. If correct then we have wave 1 impulsive decline and subsequent retracement of 78.6% nearly complete for wave 2 or could do so very soon.

It has been observed that many weekly highs and low are formed on Monday or Friday. I am assuming that it could gap up on open today or just move up in to our shorting zone and then sell off in process forming weekly high and potential swing for reversal.

So here is the summary:

1. Retraced 78.6% of previous swing and also others fibs ratio confluence.
2. ABC retracement zigzag is almost complete with wave "C" potentially forming a rising wedge ( ending diagonal - see 1Hr chart for details below) which could have bit more upside room.
3. RSI is coiling at higher level into declining resistance line.
4. Ideal entry around 1.09 -1.0920 or better.
5. However, if we get price much higher towards 1.1 then we will be close to invalidation point and might need a review of analysis.

If the setup work then potential downside targets:
1. Target 1 = 1.055
2. Target 2 = 1.044

Could this decline line up with disappointment or lack of progress on Greece issue? We will see in the meantime look forward to seeing this trade work for us.

As always, do your own analysis for your trade requirement. Select to follow me and the chart for notification of future updates. If you like the analysis then please indicate this by thumbs up, constructive comments and sharing with others. If you have an alternative idea then please share for all to learn from.

Thank you for taking the time to read my analysis.

Updated chart published
I think we can safely say this is invalidated :)
+1 Reply
DanV Pansyfaust
Yes indeed and will revisit it later once the FOMC id over or may be weekend to see what happened in the terms of the wave counts and possibly what next.
UPDATE: I thought that the above chart will not work. However having reviewed the price action and wave counts I think it could till be in play though high risk but defined. So here goes.

Looking for an exiting possibility if with this wedge nearly complete. The whole pattern could be double zigzag
+1 Reply
UPDATE: DXY has gone beyond the point of invalidation. so it could still be correcting in larger wave and EURUSD could not hit 1.1 and may be small retrace before going to 1.11 for completing this cycle which might turn into 5 wave cycle. So any entry short will be deferred and will review later. Sorry about the best laid plan did not work for now.
Yes, I expected this based on crude oil...complex correction never ends! :/
+1 Reply
Update: The focus in now on 1.095 for completing of this ending diagonal.
Every swings in this are 3-3-3-3-3 (ending diagonal).
-1 Reply
Was supposed to post this here, not on AUDUSD ;)
+1 Reply
UPDATE: Compared with the price action since market open this week it seems that we are gradually progressing to shorting zone and still potentially looking at rising wedge (ending diagonal). However we also note that from the last weeks high we declined in abc zigzag but also then bounced in abc zigzag, that suggest still corrective price action.

This is leading me to anticipate a potential minor triangle in wave iv as shown in the chart below. If correct, then on completion of this triangle of final leg to upside into shorting zone would follow. This would increase the probability of out proposed short. Here is the chart with details
-1 Reply
Interesting, thanks for sharing.
I'm thinking the next move is decisive, should help us confirm what we're working with now.

I see a complete 5 waves decline since the top in EURUSD, backed by the fundamental situation and important correlations, and not just in eurusd, but probable reversals in multiple eur pairs.

The only thing planting a seed of doubt in my mind is the crude oil chart:
Maybe it doesn't have to correlate with this corrective euro strength move?

+1 Reply
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