FX618Analysis

EURUSD Looking For Direction To Trend. The 2 Possible Scenarios!

FX:EURUSD   Euro / U.S. Dollar
Looking at the Monthly charts, it was already evident that the long term trendline at around the 1.23000 level was rejected for the 4th time and in the process to conform the break to the further downside, this pair formed a H & S PATTERN evident on the weekly charts. However you might be asking why is the pair not trending down as its suppose to and instead flirting with the major crucial levels? The answer can be very complex for the beginners as the market is not only soley directed by the technical analysis but also the sentiment and the fundamental factors!

On the technical terms the pair seems to be favored to break to the downside. It must be noted that the neckline of the H & S was broken a few weeks back and retested as well, however the crucial support that lies just beneath the neckline also needs to break in order for this pair to trend down. So this said, the main driver of this pair according to my own view rests on in the hand of the FED as the expectations of rate hike four times this year seems to be in the balance. Fundamental factors have been so important in driving this pair in recent years, and if the FED keeps on track to raise rates 4 times this year then the pair is highly likely to break to the downside, in other turn of events should the FED fail to raise the rates as expected this year then the pair might break the wedge and head up!

The long term fate of this pair is tied up in the hands of the FED as we approach the end of the year it must be noted to carefully observe what the FED plans and from here on then a follow up technical analysis can be done. For now the pair will likely to keep ranging until certain fundamental factors come in to play!

Thanks for reading. please follow me if you like my analysis. If there are any signals pertaining to this thread i will repost again. This is just my personal analysis and i will keep monitoring this pair closely
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