Irasor

EUR/USD: The years-end-analysis - Likely to see PARITY!

FX:EURUSD   Euro / U.S. Dollar
Hey Tradomaniacs,

welcome to another weekly overview of EUR/USD!

Let`s take a look at the year and what we see is a huge Sell-Off aswell!


EUR/USD started this year @ 1,19873 and found our years high @ 1,25628 in feburary.
After that we`ve just consolidated in a range between the peak and 1,22.

FED`s rate hikes consistently punished the EUR which was affected by many different political circumstances
like Brexit, italy, france and so on.

The European Central Bank decided to quit the QE not as expected - But these might be the first signs of a hawkish policy.
But will we seriously see a rate hike this year? I don`t think so.

What is the consequence of the financial crisis in 2008?
The ECB did nothing else than shifting a problem with financial injections by a ZERO-interest-rate-policy
and the Money-Print-Rage + the QE .

I bet you`ve heared about the quantity equation.

The best way to fight inflation is to increase the interest rate. Since the recession is slowly on its way to destroy
our economy again indicated by a cooling down economy and stockmarket the ECB can not just increase the interest-rate in 2019
as planned and Draghi probably wont even increase them during his term.

Why? Because the only way to suppor the economy is cheap debts/money/credits.



Technical aspects:

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After the break through the Neckline we`ve seen a test of the 61,6% retracement and could show us the first impulse
after the breakout of this S/H/S-Pattern. the next move is a retracement back to the trendline , where we bounced off again
and created a doji aboce the candles body.

Is all this a retracement ala kissback before we continue the journey to the south called "parity"?
The FED`s policy is pretty hawkish because Jerome Powel has officially confirmed that the FED-PUT is gone.

He won`t take a look at the Wallstreet anymore and prefers to take the economy and its climate as his indicator for his monetary policy .

The S/H/S-Pattern target would be @ 1,05 which is between the 1.414 and 1.618 Fibonacci-Extension.
The time-Zones are pretty accurate and should be taken seriously.

Conclusion: I`m more bearish but it`s all up to the political situations around us in Europe plus
the ECB`s upcoming desicions.

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We will see what happens!


I WISH YOU A HAPPY NEW YEARS EVE! Enjoy the time with family and friends! :-)

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Peace and good trades
Irasor


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Any questions? PM me. :-)

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