Despite the usual year-end cooling, the dollar's strength, underpinned by US macro performance and a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve, is expected to continue. The dollar remains unaffected by the Treasury sell-off and rising long-term yield curve. High US interest rates and a disorganized rise in US yields are seen as factors that could further strengthen the dollar.
Factors that could lead to a weaker dollar include weaker US macro data, a slowing US economy or a recession in the euro zone. However, these potential weaknesses are not expected to result from a reassessment of China's or Europe's growth outlook. High US interest rates are likely to disrupt the financial sector, which will initially boost the dollar due to tighter dollar funding conditions.
Factors that could lead to a weaker dollar include weaker US macro data, a slowing US economy or a recession in the euro zone. However, these potential weaknesses are not expected to result from a reassessment of China's or Europe's growth outlook. High US interest rates are likely to disrupt the financial sector, which will initially boost the dollar due to tighter dollar funding conditions.
Trade closed: target reached
