HI Team
My last trade on this pair - yet again - hit our TP level as expected, and if you were holding it would have made even greater profits!
Fundamentals:
As EU countries rally successfully to mitigate rising wholesale energy costs, their economic manufacturing output looks to be in a better position than most, making a rally for EU more likely.
Despite several recent strengthening measures implemented by the FED, we are seeing USD markets starting to slide again.
Gains above 1.0 will be difficult to maintain, but we don't need it to stay up - we just need it to *go* up.
Chart Analysis
We are running a 1H 30 pip wide channel at major support for this pair, which coincides with the end stage of an AE elliott wave correction on the larger time frame. At the very least we can use this reliable pair to hit the top of the established channel - if it breaks up then we can expect a rise at least to recent highs.
NEWS
Tuesday 30th
- Business climate and consumer confidence data: This is moderate impact, but we are not expecting a huge change from previous.
- 1815 - High Impact - Harmonised index of consumer prices (YOY). Summarily this indicates price stability in the union. I am anticipating a slight rise in this value, which should see the EUR rally.
Wednesday 31st
- 1215 - multiple Housing data releases. We can expect further housing market instability currently - this should be a good motivator to break out.
- 0900 - German unemployment rate. This is likely to increase slightly, and as the biggest player in the union, may be what sees us stuck at the local channel resistance.
- 1215 - ADP Employment rate (US). IF see a value higher than consensus, it's bullish for USD and will see us struggle to break out. Opposite is true if lower than consensus.
Thursday 1st
- 0600 - Eur Retail sales. We are expecting Germany to have an improved retail sector on the back of increased energy security. IF as expected, will see EUR rally.
- 0900 - EUR unemployment rate. Higher is bullish for USD in this pair.
- 1215 - Multiple outlet USD news (moderate). These are mostly relating to jobs acquisitions and I do not think it is going to impact the market until fully assessed after the weekend.
Friday 2nd
- 1215 - Non - Farm Payroll (NFP). This is always the chaos box. I may post something closer to the time, but general consensus is that the jobs market cannot keep up with the bumper of the last presser. I expect strong panicky market response to see this pair shoot up at least in the short term.
Summary:
Anything beyond the short term outlook carries too much uncertainty. Trading against the world reserve currency also carries with it complications that aren't always easy to spot. Take each day as it comes, and come Friday establish whether trades are worth staying out of, or riding the coat tails of expected usd weakness.
This is a very high RR of 12:1 trade. The invalidation below support is very clear.
Like what I do? Please comment, follow, like and share. I am a real-life Doctor, and it really takes a lot of time and energy to do these analyses when I'm not in the hospital!
Good luck, Trade safe
DrBear
My last trade on this pair - yet again - hit our TP level as expected, and if you were holding it would have made even greater profits!
Fundamentals:
As EU countries rally successfully to mitigate rising wholesale energy costs, their economic manufacturing output looks to be in a better position than most, making a rally for EU more likely.
Despite several recent strengthening measures implemented by the FED, we are seeing USD markets starting to slide again.
Gains above 1.0 will be difficult to maintain, but we don't need it to stay up - we just need it to *go* up.
Chart Analysis
We are running a 1H 30 pip wide channel at major support for this pair, which coincides with the end stage of an AE elliott wave correction on the larger time frame. At the very least we can use this reliable pair to hit the top of the established channel - if it breaks up then we can expect a rise at least to recent highs.
NEWS
Tuesday 30th
- Business climate and consumer confidence data: This is moderate impact, but we are not expecting a huge change from previous.
- 1815 - High Impact - Harmonised index of consumer prices (YOY). Summarily this indicates price stability in the union. I am anticipating a slight rise in this value, which should see the EUR rally.
Wednesday 31st
- 1215 - multiple Housing data releases. We can expect further housing market instability currently - this should be a good motivator to break out.
- 0900 - German unemployment rate. This is likely to increase slightly, and as the biggest player in the union, may be what sees us stuck at the local channel resistance.
- 1215 - ADP Employment rate (US). IF see a value higher than consensus, it's bullish for USD and will see us struggle to break out. Opposite is true if lower than consensus.
Thursday 1st
- 0600 - Eur Retail sales. We are expecting Germany to have an improved retail sector on the back of increased energy security. IF as expected, will see EUR rally.
- 0900 - EUR unemployment rate. Higher is bullish for USD in this pair.
- 1215 - Multiple outlet USD news (moderate). These are mostly relating to jobs acquisitions and I do not think it is going to impact the market until fully assessed after the weekend.
Friday 2nd
- 1215 - Non - Farm Payroll (NFP). This is always the chaos box. I may post something closer to the time, but general consensus is that the jobs market cannot keep up with the bumper of the last presser. I expect strong panicky market response to see this pair shoot up at least in the short term.
Summary:
Anything beyond the short term outlook carries too much uncertainty. Trading against the world reserve currency also carries with it complications that aren't always easy to spot. Take each day as it comes, and come Friday establish whether trades are worth staying out of, or riding the coat tails of expected usd weakness.
This is a very high RR of 12:1 trade. The invalidation below support is very clear.
Like what I do? Please comment, follow, like and share. I am a real-life Doctor, and it really takes a lot of time and energy to do these analyses when I'm not in the hospital!
Good luck, Trade safe
DrBear
