EUR/USD -5/4/2022-

• Bears are getting ready to re-test the trend line dating back to 2017 which connects the lows of 2017,2020 and 2022.
• This target is somewhere around 1.0820
• Let's compare what happened in 2020 to what is happening now.
• Back in 2020, when the pair touched this trend line, we saw a rally up to 1.1130 where bears got in, pushed the pair lower again. After that, the pair went into consolidation phase and then reversed up to 1.20+.
• Recently, we saw a very similar move. After touching the trend line, the pair rose to 1.1130 and even more where bears got in and now we are re testing the lows of the range.
• Could the trend reverse soon?
To answer this question, we need to compare the reaction at the support level and assess the fundamental situation.
• The difference between back then and now, is that when the pair touched the support trend line in 2020, bulls were very strong and we saw an engulfing candle and a rally beyond 1.11 within just one week. On the other side, this year, bulls were weak (candles are small and the rise towards 1.11 was gradual and slow).
• Fundamentally, Europe is in a very bad economical situation due to the Ukraine-Russia war.
• In any case, the 1.0820 level could be a profit taking level for the bears and we might see a pullback from there.
• On the other hand, if the bears were able to break that level, there is no significant support other than 1.0640 followed by 1.0340

Good luck