DAX Bearish unless this trend-line breaks.

In the past month, I've made a case why DAX remains a long-term sell. The key parameter is the Lower Highs trend-line that started after the index made a (near) All Time High on January 05. As you see, the price has been rejected on that trend-line countless times already and on today's 1D candle, it has come the closest since the April 21 rejection.

A new rejection there, should extend the Channel Down, towards a new Lower Low around 13400. A break above the All Time High Lower Highs trend-line should be enough to reverse the long-term market sentiment from bearish to bullish. Keep in mind that the whole pattern since January, resembles a giant Inverse Head and Shoulders on a slope, with the two Channel Down patterns possibly serving the role of the Shoulders and the March 07 dip the role of the Head.

Keep an eye on the 1W RSI. A Bullish Cross will most likely confirm the sentiment shift from long-term bearish to bullish. In that case, target 16000. If on the other hand the Channel Down breaks to the downside, we may see accumulated selling similar to the February 24 break-out. In that case, I expect at least 12500.



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