Hello Traders and Analysts,
Breakdown:
1. Note
2. Contents
3. Research breakdown
4. Education recap
5. Information on Lupa.
A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances.
Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities.
Contents
Master Key for zones
Original Idea here: February 15th 2021.
Previous Update to the trade - proof the analysis is working!
Analysis
Monthly imbalances
Price has rejected multiple times the zone with 1.81 being the lowest wick on a monthly close. This zone is a powerful buying zone for positional holders like us for two reasons;
1. - Price is clearly making lower highs
2. - The wicks are closing bullish - suggesting the zone is a fractal buying imbalance
What is evident here?
The imbalance perfectly aligns here as price touches the price close on the monthly top reaching 2.175XX March 2020 in line with the January 2016 - where the last supply imbalance was prominent.
The candles leading up to the imbalance in January, February signify great bullish continuation closes showing a clear pathway to creating a monthly double top or at least a lower high. [The matching equal high here can be seen on the three month chart*
*
Price had to reverse from here, this is how the imbalance fill works where price perfectly reacts of a pivot point or a pricing inefficiency.
Weekly imbalances
Price has rejected the monthly zone as well as on a weekly, the weekly close is showing bullish signs as the candle closes are creating higher lows. Further to this, the price analysis of the candle sticks show a strong engulfing whipsaw of a bearish week followed by a bullish week immediately after. This shows that price action on a lower time frame will indicate that the profit taking for the sellers are transitioning the imbalance of sellers to buyers.
The gap from this zone where the imbalance has arisen, from a technical stand point gives the probability of the fresh zone on the monthly is the open target.
Cross Pair Analysis:
Understanding the cross pairs and correlation between commodity pairs
The first chart shows the weekly and monthly using the commodity pairs:
AUD JPY & CAD JPY in conjunction with NZD JPY.
The pattern of the correlation is clear - these pairs are heading towards imbalances.
Absolute correlation pairs
GBP NZD comparing against the top correlators - GBP AUD and EUR NZD on a weekly time frame against the monthly timeframe.
The idea here is provide insight as to how the pairs follow in correlation - and provide three options to trade across pairs.
Despite the GBP NZD & AUD having relatively close imbalances - the great opportunity here is to provide strong and high probability areas to set a position and trade off it.
Week imbalances using the over lay of GBP NZD imbalances - EUR NZD does not correlate as strong, however looking at the pair the weekly imbalance and monthly imbalances align with key signs of liquidity wicks which engineer the low and reject the zone.
Trade education
Using the Fibonacci across the 16 hour timeframe where price has created a "pullback", but what has happened here is price reached an imbalance and has fallen back towards the original imbalance as expected.
The correctional move has taken place here and found it's imbalance zone where price will reject.
Here is why I entered a second trade
Here is the breakdown of the wedges, pennants and channels.
Enjoy the trade - targets are based on the Fibonacci extension.
The 61.8% confirmed a breakthrough was my entry.
Do you enjoy the setups?
If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment.
To all the followers, thank you for your continued support.
Thanks,
Team LVPA MMXXI
Breakdown:
1. Note
2. Contents
3. Research breakdown
4. Education recap
5. Information on Lupa.
A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances.
Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities.
Contents
Master Key for zones
- Red = Three Month
- Blue = Monthly
- Purple = weekly
- Scarlet - Four day
- Orange = Daily
- Magenta = 8 Hour
- Grey = 4hour
- Pink = 1 hour
Original Idea here: February 15th 2021.
Previous Update to the trade - proof the analysis is working!
Analysis
Monthly imbalances
Price has rejected multiple times the zone with 1.81 being the lowest wick on a monthly close. This zone is a powerful buying zone for positional holders like us for two reasons;
1. - Price is clearly making lower highs
2. - The wicks are closing bullish - suggesting the zone is a fractal buying imbalance
What is evident here?
The imbalance perfectly aligns here as price touches the price close on the monthly top reaching 2.175XX March 2020 in line with the January 2016 - where the last supply imbalance was prominent.
The candles leading up to the imbalance in January, February signify great bullish continuation closes showing a clear pathway to creating a monthly double top or at least a lower high. [The matching equal high here can be seen on the three month chart*
Price had to reverse from here, this is how the imbalance fill works where price perfectly reacts of a pivot point or a pricing inefficiency.
Weekly imbalances
Price has rejected the monthly zone as well as on a weekly, the weekly close is showing bullish signs as the candle closes are creating higher lows. Further to this, the price analysis of the candle sticks show a strong engulfing whipsaw of a bearish week followed by a bullish week immediately after. This shows that price action on a lower time frame will indicate that the profit taking for the sellers are transitioning the imbalance of sellers to buyers.
The gap from this zone where the imbalance has arisen, from a technical stand point gives the probability of the fresh zone on the monthly is the open target.
Cross Pair Analysis:
Understanding the cross pairs and correlation between commodity pairs
The first chart shows the weekly and monthly using the commodity pairs:
AUD JPY & CAD JPY in conjunction with NZD JPY.
The pattern of the correlation is clear - these pairs are heading towards imbalances.
Absolute correlation pairs
GBP NZD comparing against the top correlators - GBP AUD and EUR NZD on a weekly time frame against the monthly timeframe.
The idea here is provide insight as to how the pairs follow in correlation - and provide three options to trade across pairs.
Despite the GBP NZD & AUD having relatively close imbalances - the great opportunity here is to provide strong and high probability areas to set a position and trade off it.
Week imbalances using the over lay of GBP NZD imbalances - EUR NZD does not correlate as strong, however looking at the pair the weekly imbalance and monthly imbalances align with key signs of liquidity wicks which engineer the low and reject the zone.
Trade education
Using the Fibonacci across the 16 hour timeframe where price has created a "pullback", but what has happened here is price reached an imbalance and has fallen back towards the original imbalance as expected.
The correctional move has taken place here and found it's imbalance zone where price will reject.
Here is why I entered a second trade
Here is the breakdown of the wedges, pennants and channels.
Enjoy the trade - targets are based on the Fibonacci extension.
The 61.8% confirmed a breakthrough was my entry.
Do you enjoy the setups?
- 10 years combined analysis experience in capital markets
- Focus on technical output not fundamentals
- Position and swing trades
- Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress.
If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment.
To all the followers, thank you for your continued support.
Thanks,
Team LVPA MMXXI
