quantguy

GBP Rides Brexit and BoE Comments

Long
FX:GBPUSD   British Pound / U.S. Dollar
GBPUSD
The British pound is riding the news today including Brexit negotiations, and Carney’s status at the BoE. Broadly, it is feeling the weight of the surging US dollar, as our most USD currency pairs today.

On day charts, generally, GBPUSD is giving us some mixed bull/bear signals. This should be a warning when trading this product in either the long or short direction.

At the time of this writing, GBPUSD is $1.2999. We will find resistance from levels from above including:

1.3043 from highs and lows over the past 14 periods
1.3214 from highs and lows over the past 30 periods
1.3472 from highs and lows

Levels from below include:

1.2935 from gaps
1.2665 from highs and lows over the past 14 periods

As for Technical Analysis we have the following. Volatility is lower than usual, but not to an extreme. An RSI value of 45 suggests that we are in bear mode but not oversold yet. The MACD is way above the signal line, which may indicate that we will see a trend reversal or at least a pull back in the near future. GBPUSD is below the 50 period SMA, indicating a bear trend. The ADX suggests that GBPUSD is ranging.

We are above the central moving average of the Kovach Reversals Indicator at 1.29, and fairly close to it. If we can gain some momentum, the upper bound of the KRI indicator at 1.31 will provide resistance.


Daily scores: Bull Score: 2 Bear Score: 2 Ranging Score: 2


Technical Analysis for GBPUSD intraday suggests ranging. Be careful entering a trade in either direction. You might want to consider a mean reversion trade.

We will find resistance from levels from above including the following:

1.3012 from highs and lows over the past 100 periods

Levels from below include:

1.2813 from gaps
1.2860 from gaps
1.2926 from gaps

Lets look at some technical analysis for GBPUSD intraday. Volatility has narrowed a bit, but may continue more before a breakout. The RSI is 46, indicating that we are in a bear trend, but not yet oversold. The MACD suggests that we are in a bullish phase but not overbought yet. The 50 period SMA indicates that we are in a bear trend. Additionally, GBPUSD intraday is below the 100 period SMA, which indicates a bear trend, but not oversold yet. Finally, the SMA(50) is roughly equal to the SMA(100), suggesting ranging. The ADX indicator, 15 confirms that GBPUSD intraday is ranging, that is, no significant trend is observed.


Bull Score: 1 Bear Score: 3 Ranging Score: 3

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