- Indices -
Powell Speech: Outlook of trade talks is unknown, premature to judge.
Complete denial, or just lying?
By now every one knows the economy numbers make no sense and cannot be sustained.
Every sucker that fell for the "trade war hopes" is slowly starting to realized he got scammed.
Don't really care about other indices as I am already short on the Snp, interesting to see the Hang Seng that did not make it back to ath is the one that retraced the most. It went up as much as the rest in % terms. Its wave 1 pullback was the biggest one too.
- FX Majors -
USDJPY waiting on the sidelines until it goes back down, or if it keeps going up will buy.
GBPUSD still going down, downtrend on H4 but on higher timeframes not so much. I either want to potentially sell a pullback or buy around support as the higher timeframe > lower timeframe.
AUDUSD there was a pullback to sell, but that pullback was a big gap up. I don't know what to expect. No thanks. Not going to touch it for a while. I don't see that giant wick as support. And I don't think I want to sell another pullback unless we really dump, below yearly lows, and that will take a while. If it does not take a while I am not touching it. So either way...
USDCHF I think the bounce was a dead cat bounce. Chart-patterns-that-dont-work-retail-traders that bought the fake bull break are I think in denial.
They refuse to cut their losses - just speculating here I don't know really - and will give up once the dead cat bounce low is taken out. USDCHF on the long term as you can see is not bearish at all.
Just slightly bullish. Slowly going up, trapping bull break traders. Breaks are slow and don't get much follow up in bull trends which are typically diagonal slow. When they capitulate it will be a dip which are great to buy in bull markets, and I expect the price to at least retest the dead cat bounce low as support. That does not mean I think this is as high as the price will ever get for you Bitcoin people. It means that I will close my buy there because I am not a gambler.
Would be just perfect if the price bottomed as it does a "bear break" of the wedge and people get trapped once again, filling my bids. "TA / price action does not work trading is one big scam".
USDMXN no conviction on buyers side. I still do not know where it is likely to go. Just watching.
- Commodities -
Gold FOMO buyers rekt. If the downtrend goes on and there is a pullback like in the blue circles I will go short. Otherwise looking to buy around 1200$ as I have been saying for 2 months now. Will wait for as long as it takes or until there is a new development.
Gold buy is mirrored by a silver buy, but I would rather be in gold. There is just no difference. Well there is, gold is more bullish. Silver I don't expect to become more bullish than gold unelss it goes to new lows (and not jsut 50 cents), or in a long time.
It maybe be in a bad situation, but I do not think the lower lines are that important.
You can always draw a new line and it looks like gold is still above support. The upper line thought is clearly relevant...
Actually I placed a buy. But at this level of zoom in, the thing is spreads really ruin risk reward ratios. And I might get hit by noise... Let's jsut see. I won't do this often anyway. In any case 2/3 daily ATR is the bare minimum I will ever go for. Gold spreads are pretty high compared to the biggest Forex pairs (2 to 3 times for the same daily ATR) and even the biggest Forex pairs spreads are twice as high as the Dow Jones & Dax ones.
There is a convergence of factors leading me to think the price bounces there so I'll give it a go.
Crude Oil it looks like the typical supply/demand cycle on a smaller scale.
This is the smallest on which it makes sense. Anything below that is pure noise.
Maybe I should have kept some of my contracts rather than close evrything? :D
Still waiting to short around 70-75$ something something.
Copper is weird. Looks like some kind of weird corrective pattern. It looks like it is bottoming, a bit early. I don't think I still want to buy.
Aggri biggest one Soybean made a recovery but it stinks I am not interested in touching it.
Interesting to see some futures, wheat has made a hige recovery and a higher high!
Corn this is just ridiculous now stop it!
Aggri futures on the ICE have not gone up. Ponzi insider pyramid scheme. Or easy arbitrage play?
By the way, you get to use 10 to 1 leverage on commodity futures other than gold in europe. Easy blow up.
By the way, the ESMA admitted last year that since the new leverage rules came into effect, MORE retail traders lost money, yes that is MORE. A bigger percentage were losers, and less were profitable.
These rules are so stupid. They do not affect me as much, I just don't get to do whatever I want, and thank you for negative balance protection, my broker can take the hit for me if something crazy happens, but gosh these rules are DUMB.
- Cryptocurrencies -
After a few months of waiting (and morons harassing me for not buying when I cannot quantify my risk) I believe the bear market correction is soon over. The highest price reached in years is probably going to be reached before the end of next week. I am scaling in here because I cannot pinpoint the exact top but I have high probabily areas where I have orders, and I might just go all at once if I see a small christmas tree topper like Dec 17 2017 and Nov 30 2013. I look forward to getting back to the good old days of the downtrend and pointing and laughing at bulls in complete denial. June and December, worse months for Bitcoin.
The alt market is approaching 100 billion cap. Because of that + because Bitcoin I believe is close to this bubble top, I won't buy.
- FX minors -
GBPJPY only interested in selling the pound & buying the yen.
CHFJPY too big pullback for me, I think the swiss franc keeps going higher (maybe because of USDCHF). Not touching it still...
EURAUD I like what I see I will definitely want to buy a pullback to this area:
GBPCAD gave away so much gains that took so long, so fast. Rekt. The more slowly it goes up the faster it goes down and vice versa. The lows are clearly a support area nothing complex about that one so I will want to buy. Also want to sell if the downtrend pullsback, because you do not stop a truck this easilly. "We are going up on Brexit hopes" lmao "efficient market" lmao. Bunch of idiots like the rest.
"Sterling set for biggest rise in a year on Brexit hopes - Reuters Jan 25, 2019"
NZDUSD looking for a sell. No buy.
AUDUSD not touching but AUDJPY could be just the right combo with the yen stronger than the dollar. Will sell a pullback. Even if the australian dollar "chops" there is still the bullishness of the yen in my favor. So I have to be wrong twice to lose. If there is a pullback.
GBPCHF well I guess by now people figured out what I do. Feelsbadman. Secret strategy leaked. Same concept as usual buy in accumulation area sell strong downtrends.
GBPCAD downtrend, if there is a pullback it is not "normal", so I am only looking to buy in the demand area. Not buying no matter what if we are not in this area.
Oh maybe I should add this as a rule?
1- Preserve capital 2- Preserve mental capital 3- Have the correct bias 4- Have systems to enter / exit 5- Find ideas to enter 6- Choose your markets timeframes strategies. 7- And more
==> 6 goes into 7 and I add between 3 and 4 because it is important "Have filters" or something like this (only short in supply area or strong trends, stay away from choppy markets, etc)
I should modify my April 6 "Trading rules" idea.
EUR/Pound obviously going way up.
EURSEK has remained above ATH all this time. Will buy on a retest of that ath. To the moon! Target infinity.
Communist Sweden "the rape capital of europe" is going to end up a complete s***hole, the toilet of europe.
Meanwhile previously communist Estonia has turned to economic freedom since 1991/1992 pretty much, free capitalism, and it now the wealthiest nation of east europe.
Life expectancy has moved from 66 years in 1994 to 77 years in 2016. Yo how do I long east europe? Social justice liberals are economically destroying the west (trying to stay politically correct here I would put it differently in private or on twitter), time for the east to shine.
People used to laugh at me (and most still do) for saying USA & west europe sink to third world scum and east europe & russia are going up (because they are at the part of the socialist/capitalism cycle where things get very very good), but things ARE clearly changing, just wait and see in 10-30 years.
Things are getting brighter and brighter and they have a great beautiful future ahead of them.
I don't really know about China, probably they go up, but people are way overestimating them.
Short the west! Long the east!
AUDCAD maybe sell.
USDCNH not touching it here... Way overextented, I would need a big dump like Bitcoin to short sell it. I rather not buy it can just crash hard instantly. Similar situations:
USDTRY just waiting for a deeper pullback. People are still hesitant. How long I will hodl will depend on interests. Wasted country. Slowly turning into third world sewers.
To sum up:
Indices: patient still short
FX "Majors": GBPUSD USDCHF may be interesting, waiting for the rest.
Gold: Waiting for the price to go below 1266 to join the downtrend short, or buy as it ends.
Bitcoin: Scaling in short. Now is still a bit early, waiting for it to go higher to sell more.
"Minor" pairs: EURAUD I want to buy around 0.382. GBPJPY meh, GBPCAD same trade as GBPUSD not sure it has any advantage over it, GBPCHF trending towards liquidity area GBPCAD too, EURGBP same story. NZDUSD potential sell. AUJPY selling a pullback ABC. EURSEK I wanna buy TO THE MOON, but waiting for an ABC to ath (even thought there was an ABC above it) because that's how I roll. AUDCAD interesting to sell, USDCNH better not buy, sell if sellers step in with conviction.
The stock market was going up on trade war hopes. But that went down the drain China and the USA are almost declaring war on each other haha.
Bitcoin was going up on ETF hopes for a few months. Got pushed back. Can we not keep going up on ETF hopes for 6 more months? K thx. Or "the end of the bear market" hopes rather maybe.
The pound was going up on Brexit hopes. All gains erased in a few days. Rekt.
"Hopes". I cringe every time I see that word.
What we are dealing with is not human. Can't be. Bunch of idiots I swear.
Powell Speech: Outlook of trade talks is unknown, premature to judge.
Complete denial, or just lying?
By now every one knows the economy numbers make no sense and cannot be sustained.
Every sucker that fell for the "trade war hopes" is slowly starting to realized he got scammed.
Don't really care about other indices as I am already short on the Snp, interesting to see the Hang Seng that did not make it back to ath is the one that retraced the most. It went up as much as the rest in % terms. Its wave 1 pullback was the biggest one too.
- FX Majors -
USDJPY waiting on the sidelines until it goes back down, or if it keeps going up will buy.
GBPUSD still going down, downtrend on H4 but on higher timeframes not so much. I either want to potentially sell a pullback or buy around support as the higher timeframe > lower timeframe.
AUDUSD there was a pullback to sell, but that pullback was a big gap up. I don't know what to expect. No thanks. Not going to touch it for a while. I don't see that giant wick as support. And I don't think I want to sell another pullback unless we really dump, below yearly lows, and that will take a while. If it does not take a while I am not touching it. So either way...
USDCHF I think the bounce was a dead cat bounce. Chart-patterns-that-dont-work-retail-traders that bought the fake bull break are I think in denial.
They refuse to cut their losses - just speculating here I don't know really - and will give up once the dead cat bounce low is taken out. USDCHF on the long term as you can see is not bearish at all.
Just slightly bullish. Slowly going up, trapping bull break traders. Breaks are slow and don't get much follow up in bull trends which are typically diagonal slow. When they capitulate it will be a dip which are great to buy in bull markets, and I expect the price to at least retest the dead cat bounce low as support. That does not mean I think this is as high as the price will ever get for you Bitcoin people. It means that I will close my buy there because I am not a gambler.
Would be just perfect if the price bottomed as it does a "bear break" of the wedge and people get trapped once again, filling my bids. "TA / price action does not work trading is one big scam".
USDMXN no conviction on buyers side. I still do not know where it is likely to go. Just watching.
- Commodities -
Gold FOMO buyers rekt. If the downtrend goes on and there is a pullback like in the blue circles I will go short. Otherwise looking to buy around 1200$ as I have been saying for 2 months now. Will wait for as long as it takes or until there is a new development.
Gold buy is mirrored by a silver buy, but I would rather be in gold. There is just no difference. Well there is, gold is more bullish. Silver I don't expect to become more bullish than gold unelss it goes to new lows (and not jsut 50 cents), or in a long time.
It maybe be in a bad situation, but I do not think the lower lines are that important.
You can always draw a new line and it looks like gold is still above support. The upper line thought is clearly relevant...
Actually I placed a buy. But at this level of zoom in, the thing is spreads really ruin risk reward ratios. And I might get hit by noise... Let's jsut see. I won't do this often anyway. In any case 2/3 daily ATR is the bare minimum I will ever go for. Gold spreads are pretty high compared to the biggest Forex pairs (2 to 3 times for the same daily ATR) and even the biggest Forex pairs spreads are twice as high as the Dow Jones & Dax ones.
There is a convergence of factors leading me to think the price bounces there so I'll give it a go.
Crude Oil it looks like the typical supply/demand cycle on a smaller scale.
This is the smallest on which it makes sense. Anything below that is pure noise.
Maybe I should have kept some of my contracts rather than close evrything? :D
Still waiting to short around 70-75$ something something.
Copper is weird. Looks like some kind of weird corrective pattern. It looks like it is bottoming, a bit early. I don't think I still want to buy.
Aggri biggest one Soybean made a recovery but it stinks I am not interested in touching it.
Interesting to see some futures, wheat has made a hige recovery and a higher high!
Corn this is just ridiculous now stop it!
Aggri futures on the ICE have not gone up. Ponzi insider pyramid scheme. Or easy arbitrage play?
By the way, you get to use 10 to 1 leverage on commodity futures other than gold in europe. Easy blow up.
By the way, the ESMA admitted last year that since the new leverage rules came into effect, MORE retail traders lost money, yes that is MORE. A bigger percentage were losers, and less were profitable.
These rules are so stupid. They do not affect me as much, I just don't get to do whatever I want, and thank you for negative balance protection, my broker can take the hit for me if something crazy happens, but gosh these rules are DUMB.
- Cryptocurrencies -
After a few months of waiting (and morons harassing me for not buying when I cannot quantify my risk) I believe the bear market correction is soon over. The highest price reached in years is probably going to be reached before the end of next week. I am scaling in here because I cannot pinpoint the exact top but I have high probabily areas where I have orders, and I might just go all at once if I see a small christmas tree topper like Dec 17 2017 and Nov 30 2013. I look forward to getting back to the good old days of the downtrend and pointing and laughing at bulls in complete denial. June and December, worse months for Bitcoin.
The alt market is approaching 100 billion cap. Because of that + because Bitcoin I believe is close to this bubble top, I won't buy.
- FX minors -
GBPJPY only interested in selling the pound & buying the yen.
CHFJPY too big pullback for me, I think the swiss franc keeps going higher (maybe because of USDCHF). Not touching it still...
EURAUD I like what I see I will definitely want to buy a pullback to this area:
GBPCAD gave away so much gains that took so long, so fast. Rekt. The more slowly it goes up the faster it goes down and vice versa. The lows are clearly a support area nothing complex about that one so I will want to buy. Also want to sell if the downtrend pullsback, because you do not stop a truck this easilly. "We are going up on Brexit hopes" lmao "efficient market" lmao. Bunch of idiots like the rest.
"Sterling set for biggest rise in a year on Brexit hopes - Reuters Jan 25, 2019"
NZDUSD looking for a sell. No buy.
AUDUSD not touching but AUDJPY could be just the right combo with the yen stronger than the dollar. Will sell a pullback. Even if the australian dollar "chops" there is still the bullishness of the yen in my favor. So I have to be wrong twice to lose. If there is a pullback.
GBPCHF well I guess by now people figured out what I do. Feelsbadman. Secret strategy leaked. Same concept as usual buy in accumulation area sell strong downtrends.
GBPCAD downtrend, if there is a pullback it is not "normal", so I am only looking to buy in the demand area. Not buying no matter what if we are not in this area.
Oh maybe I should add this as a rule?
1- Preserve capital 2- Preserve mental capital 3- Have the correct bias 4- Have systems to enter / exit 5- Find ideas to enter 6- Choose your markets timeframes strategies. 7- And more
==> 6 goes into 7 and I add between 3 and 4 because it is important "Have filters" or something like this (only short in supply area or strong trends, stay away from choppy markets, etc)
I should modify my April 6 "Trading rules" idea.
EUR/Pound obviously going way up.
EURSEK has remained above ATH all this time. Will buy on a retest of that ath. To the moon! Target infinity.
Communist Sweden "the rape capital of europe" is going to end up a complete s***hole, the toilet of europe.
Meanwhile previously communist Estonia has turned to economic freedom since 1991/1992 pretty much, free capitalism, and it now the wealthiest nation of east europe.
Life expectancy has moved from 66 years in 1994 to 77 years in 2016. Yo how do I long east europe? Social justice liberals are economically destroying the west (trying to stay politically correct here I would put it differently in private or on twitter), time for the east to shine.
People used to laugh at me (and most still do) for saying USA & west europe sink to third world scum and east europe & russia are going up (because they are at the part of the socialist/capitalism cycle where things get very very good), but things ARE clearly changing, just wait and see in 10-30 years.
Things are getting brighter and brighter and they have a great beautiful future ahead of them.
I don't really know about China, probably they go up, but people are way overestimating them.
Short the west! Long the east!
AUDCAD maybe sell.
USDCNH not touching it here... Way overextented, I would need a big dump like Bitcoin to short sell it. I rather not buy it can just crash hard instantly. Similar situations:
USDTRY just waiting for a deeper pullback. People are still hesitant. How long I will hodl will depend on interests. Wasted country. Slowly turning into third world sewers.
To sum up:
Indices: patient still short
FX "Majors": GBPUSD USDCHF may be interesting, waiting for the rest.
Gold: Waiting for the price to go below 1266 to join the downtrend short, or buy as it ends.
Bitcoin: Scaling in short. Now is still a bit early, waiting for it to go higher to sell more.
"Minor" pairs: EURAUD I want to buy around 0.382. GBPJPY meh, GBPCAD same trade as GBPUSD not sure it has any advantage over it, GBPCHF trending towards liquidity area GBPCAD too, EURGBP same story. NZDUSD potential sell. AUJPY selling a pullback ABC. EURSEK I wanna buy TO THE MOON, but waiting for an ABC to ath (even thought there was an ABC above it) because that's how I roll. AUDCAD interesting to sell, USDCNH better not buy, sell if sellers step in with conviction.
The stock market was going up on trade war hopes. But that went down the drain China and the USA are almost declaring war on each other haha.
Bitcoin was going up on ETF hopes for a few months. Got pushed back. Can we not keep going up on ETF hopes for 6 more months? K thx. Or "the end of the bear market" hopes rather maybe.
The pound was going up on Brexit hopes. All gains erased in a few days. Rekt.
"Hopes". I cringe every time I see that word.
What we are dealing with is not human. Can't be. Bunch of idiots I swear.
Trade active:
I guess some idiots had their stop losses at obvious levels and got taken down.
Thanks for filing me. Man that was so close. Well not that it's over.
Looking like a strong V shape recovery.
Not going to spam this idea and post an update every 5 minutes don't worry.
Got some Tesla investors to troll.
"What does a hedge fund manager do on an average day"
Oh you know its alot of hard work...
(I manage my own money & clealry diversify so I'm calling myself that)
Thanks for filing me. Man that was so close. Well not that it's over.
Looking like a strong V shape recovery.
Not going to spam this idea and post an update every 5 minutes don't worry.
Got some Tesla investors to troll.
"What does a hedge fund manager do on an average day"
Oh you know its alot of hard work...
(I manage my own money & clealry diversify so I'm calling myself that)
Trade closed: stop reached:
I ain't holding these bags much longer.
I lost chump change.
I hope I didn't get stopped at the bototm thought :D
I hate this TF.
I lost chump change.
I hope I didn't get stopped at the bototm thought :D
I hate this TF.
Comment:
Note to self: It is hard to draw while laughing.
Note to self: It is hard to draw while laughing.
Comment:
S&P dead cat bounce bear flag/pennant bear break, looks like continuation of the selling. As usual for the past 2 weeks or something, the futures decline at night, and then during the stock market hours, baggies buy and try to recover the losses of the night. They struggled earlier today/yesterday if you are GMT we can see 2 doji's with the close barely above the open on the 4 hour chart.
Bagholders might "buy the dip" and retest support at resistance if the price keeps going down in the next hours which is likely. The more distance to recover the harder.
I would love the price to go to 2830 at least until then.
The perfect scenario is price goes down and baggies do not buy more, and eventually all these baggies have to vomit their bags and we see a massive snowballing red candle day. And Trump gives up too.
Trade war hopes is done. Bulls can stop buying now. It is clearly bad.
Things have gotten worse and worse and still are worsening.
Time to recognize the mistake and get out of a bad trade.
In other news, daily inside bar bear break on bagcoin, dip bought immediately. As usual.
Over 1 year ago I showed several examples of this scam over the period of I think it was March. Over and over and over back then and it is happening over and over still.
I don't know why I did not start an entire business based on scamming Bitcoin traders... It's been over a year and this still happens... Ridiculous...
Bagholders might "buy the dip" and retest support at resistance if the price keeps going down in the next hours which is likely. The more distance to recover the harder.
I would love the price to go to 2830 at least until then.
The perfect scenario is price goes down and baggies do not buy more, and eventually all these baggies have to vomit their bags and we see a massive snowballing red candle day. And Trump gives up too.
Trade war hopes is done. Bulls can stop buying now. It is clearly bad.
Things have gotten worse and worse and still are worsening.
Time to recognize the mistake and get out of a bad trade.
In other news, daily inside bar bear break on bagcoin, dip bought immediately. As usual.
Over 1 year ago I showed several examples of this scam over the period of I think it was March. Over and over and over back then and it is happening over and over still.
I don't know why I did not start an entire business based on scamming Bitcoin traders... It's been over a year and this still happens... Ridiculous...
Comment:
So gold is going up...
Could have gone for a rr of 2 and won here.
This timeframe sucks. Full of noise.
Could have gone for a rr of 2 and won here.
This timeframe sucks. Full of noise.
Comment:
2 lows taken out, well second one is being tested but we went lower, 1 to go.
Looking like some nice downtrend continuation, great.
Looking like some nice downtrend continuation, great.
Another reason why I can't be bothered trading noise.
Risking little to make "alot".
Just going to post it here idc, no one will hunt me for a trade that small lol.
Stop Loss: -38.50 @1,271.70
Limit Profit: 256.50 @1,283.50