Breakout of the bearish channel with a target of 1.30 for GBP/US

OANDA:GBPUSD   British Pound / U.S. Dollar
The provided text offers an overview of the current state of the GBP/USD currency pair, as well as upcoming events and factors that could influence its movement. Here are the key points:

Current State of GBP/USD: Currently, the GBP/USD pair is trading below 1.2150 in the European morning of a Wednesday. This suggests that the British Pound (GBP) is weaker compared to the US Dollar (USD) at this moment.

Strength of the US Dollar: The US Dollar is experiencing a recovery phase and is supported by higher bond yields. This strength of the USD is attributed to the anticipation of the upcoming Federal Reserve decision.

Upcoming Events: Several significant events and data releases are scheduled. These include the Federal Reserve decision (FOMC meeting), US employment data, and the ISM PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index). Additionally, the Bank of England (BoE) is expected to announce its interest rate decision, and BoE Governor Andrew Bailey may offer insights into the UK's economic outlook and monetary policy.

Factors Influencing GBP: The British Pound is under pressure due to weaker economic data in the UK and persistent inflation. These factors are negatively affecting the GBP/USD pair.

Geopolitical Risks: High geopolitical risks in the Middle East are mentioned as a potential factor that could favor safe-haven flows and benefit the US Dollar.

Upcoming Data Releases: Investors are monitoring key economic data releases in the US, such as the ADP employment report, JOLTS job openings, and the ISM Manufacturing PMI, while awaiting the FOMC meeting. These data releases could influence the market.

Event Timeline: The FOMC meeting will span two days, beginning on the provided Wednesday and concluding late Wednesday. Interest rates are expected to remain unchanged. Traders will closely watch the press conference held by FOMC Chairman Jerome Powell for further information that could impact the US Dollar and, consequently, the GBP/USD pair.

GBP/USD Movement: At the time of the report, the GBP/USD pair was trading around 1.2139 and had lost 0.11% during the day, suggesting a decline in the value of the British Pound against the US Dollar.

Market Volatility Potential: The text emphasizes that the FOMC meeting and the upcoming Bank of England decision are events that could trigger market volatility. Market reactions to these events will depend on the outcomes and any signals or messages provided by the central banks.

Additionally, today there will be the decision on American interest rates, and this could provide a significant boost to the price, which is currently in a slight uptrend but still within a bearish channel. A possible breakout could take the price to 1.30, while in the opposite case, the price could drop to the 0.62 Fibonacci level, which is equivalent to a price of 1.15. Comment and leave a like, greetings from Nicola, the CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
GBP/USD recovered to 1.2150 after testing 1.2100 earlier in the day, aided by an improved risk sentiment seen in Wall Street's bullish performance. This limited the USD's gains and shifted focus to the upcoming Fed policy announcements.
On the 4-hour chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator hovers around 50, indicating the indecision of GBP/USD.
The 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) serves as immediate resistance at 1.2175, followed by 1.2200 (Fibonacci 23.6% retracement of the recent downtrend, 200-period SMA). A 4-hour close above the latter could attract technical buyers, opening the door for a further rebound toward 1.2260 (a static level).
On the downside, initial support is at 1.2100 (static level, psychological level), followed by 1.2050 (the end-point of the latest downtrend) and 1.2000 (psychological level, static level).
GBP/USD advanced to 1.2200 during European trading hours on Tuesday, benefiting from improved risk sentiment. However, renewed USD strength in the latter part of the day caused the pair to retrace its daily gains. Early on Wednesday, the pair is trading within a tight range around 1.2150 as investors prepare for the Federal Reserve's (Fed) policy decisions.
A status quo in the Fed policy rate is largely anticipated. Thus, market participants will closely monitor Chairman Jerome Powell's comments on the policy outlook and scrutinize the statement language.
According to the CME Group FedWatch Tool, there is a 27% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in December. If the Fed points to the impressive third-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth and strong job growth in September as reasons to consider further tightening, the USD may outperform its counterparts.
Conversely, the USD could come under selling pressure and drive GBP/USD higher if the Fed deviates from the dot plot and suggests that high bond yields will negate the need for another rate increase.
Ahead of the Fed's policy announcements, the economic calendar will include the ISM Manufacturing PMI and ADP Employment Change data for October.

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