CommoditiesTrader
Long

Gold Surges on ECB QE Rumors and Market Turmoil

COMEX:GC1!   GOLD FUTURES
On January 6, I noted how the price action technicals were beginning to favor gold             (here). Since, gold             has begun to rally with force on both a global growth slowdown and increasing market turmoil. Naysayers will continue to hate gold             , but both fundamentals and technicals remain supportive.

The surprising (maybe not so much) move by the Swiss National Bank to abandon the EURCHF             floor, in order to front-run the ECB’s QE             announcement, sent shock waves through the financial system. It took only two months to axe the floor, following the gold             referendum, after the SNB was so passionate about doing “whatever it takes” to defend the floor.
Price action surged above the 200-day EMA, which was pointed out as a secondary resistance level after overtaking the $1,240 key resistance level. Psychological resistance will be placed around $1,260, while price action has a chance to challenge the overwhelming downward trend created in March 2014.

Gold             could find this challenging, as the focal ascending channel intersects the downward trend line at $1,272. It also corresponds with price action resistance. If price action is rejected, look for profit taking to take gold             down to the 200-day EMA, perhaps the $1,240 level to test support. RSI is leading into an overbought condition, so this level could find consolidation before the next leg up.

However, if gold             can over take it, I look for $1,295 to be the next key level of resistance, while $1,300 will act as a whole-number, psychological resistance traders seem to like. Above that, $1,314 per toz. is favorable.

We have now had several bars of strong, bullish volume above the 20-day average , and the ADX momentum indicator is ticking upwards – supporting the current uptrend.
Are you a secular Gold Bull? or do you think this is a cyclical/short term move in a long term bearish gold market?
+1 Reply
CommoditiesTrader QuantitativeExhaustion
2 years ago
I don't know, I don't really like labels lol. I am bullish, yes. I'll be frank, in 2013, I issued a $1,035 call a week prior to Goldman Sach's bear call. I thought holding gold was meaningless until opened my eyes to all the BS. Fundamentals have been in gold's favor, but I am not a "perma-bull." If you read my analysis, I give both upside and downside trajectories. I am bullish physical bullion in a well-diversified portfolio while I can either hedge or short futures if need be.
+1 Reply
jangseohee
2 years ago
1300 could be the resistance.. fingers cross
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CommoditiesTrader jangseohee
2 years ago
Not sure why you'd want portfolio protection to hit resistance ;) The charade in stocks is over
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jangseohee CommoditiesTrader
2 years ago
round number psychological level ? No? :-)
Who says it is over, Draghi finally got his act together next thursday and Mdm Y has either operational twist 2 or QE4 up in her sleeve,

Just joking ;-)
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CommoditiesTrader jangseohee
2 years ago
You shouldn't be lol. If you think there's not more QE, well good luck ;)
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jangseohee CommoditiesTrader
2 years ago
there is always a possible of more QE from Fed :-)
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aki.sappraphai
2 years ago
as a day trader, I don't really looking into the future, cuz you will never know what's going to happen. I trade what the market give at the current time. there are more potential to trade longer term, but i must limited my profit due to Moment management, profitable with less risk.
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IvanLabrie TOP aki.sappraphai
2 years ago
Risk depends on how you manage money and how well you perform your analysis, not timeframe.
I'd dare to say higher timeframes are safer, if you're patient enough.
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CommoditiesTrader IvanLabrie
2 years ago
Lol tell that to those Swiss longs than shorts. I agree with your first part though.
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aki.sappraphai IvanLabrie
2 years ago
I do agree with you on that. but as for me, it's hard to keep on long term since there aren't enough margin to begin with. As a day trader, I need to move funds in and out quickly, If i keep as longer time be. that would make me an investor then. This apply to our general life style as well. Do what life has to ofter today, tomorrow you might die, who know, right!
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CommoditiesTrader aki.sappraphai
2 years ago
If you're worried about margin, you're over leveraged. Furthermore, "investor" means there is a vested interest in the performance of a company, maybe asset. Warren Buffet is an investor. I followed the AUDUSD the entire way down in the summer of 13. Needless to say, I had no vested interest in the direction because I remained flexible to switch gears if need be.
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CommoditiesTrader CommoditiesTrader
2 years ago
Haha
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ucsgears PRO IvanLabrie
2 years ago
Agree, Larger the time, easier to trade. Managing trade is a skill.
+2 Reply
CommoditiesTrader ucsgears
2 years ago
I beg to differ. Tell that to all those bond shorts. If your analysis is wrong from the get-go, it doesn't matter what time frame you trade on. Furthermore, longer-term charts offer a clearer picture of trends. I won't nickel and dime a daily chart. It all depends on the objective.

To make a sports reference, if you cannot master layups there no point practicing three-pointers.

I analyze longer-term charts, and narrow it down for entries on intraday charts. I won't create a position or multi-leg trade on an hour chart.
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jangseohee
2 years ago
eh... feel like taking my profit now, can i ride the trend to 1240?
Short was triggered at 1302... yesterday
GC1!, Inverted H&S break out
+1 Reply
CommoditiesTrader jangseohee
2 years ago
It is a great short-term idea!
+1 Reply
jangseohee CommoditiesTrader
2 years ago
Yes, it is :-)
+1 Reply
CommoditiesTrader jangseohee
2 years ago
What are you targeting? 1290 @ 1302 would be nice. I wonder if the ECB qe is priced in. I'd figure euro increase, dollar down...gold in dollars up?
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jangseohee CommoditiesTrader
2 years ago
1st target: 1260 the descending blue line support
further down 1240 and then boom another stronger bulls

it might not even go there but i am willing to take the risk at least 1260... worst case, i re-queue my stop loss from 1312 to 1302 :-)
+1 Reply
CommoditiesTrader jangseohee
2 years ago
That is probable. Shite, if you get 15-20 pts, move the SL at 5 + spread. Never accept breakeven on a winning trade ;)
+2 Reply
jangseohee CommoditiesTrader
2 years ago
ok.. right away SIR..
1295!
-1 Reply
CommoditiesTrader jangseohee
2 years ago
Hahah there you go. Just my way of thinking, I guess. I have had, and seen, trades waaaay in the money either hit breakeven or SL for a loss. I just figure, hell might as well get a little something :D
+2 Reply
jangseohee CommoditiesTrader
2 years ago
it is a trade off.. and i am suppose to trust my analysis that it will get to at least 1260.. but you never know :-)
+1 Reply
CommoditiesTrader jangseohee
2 years ago
I hope you cut and run :D
+1 Reply
jangseohee CommoditiesTrader
2 years ago
;-( 1288
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CommoditiesTrader jangseohee
2 years ago
Profit is profit
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jangseohee CommoditiesTrader
2 years ago
queueing another short at 1311 :-)
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CommoditiesTrader jangseohee
2 years ago
Lol good luck. I think believe are misunderstanding the move in gold. Traders are hedging central banks. If anything Id wait for a stronger resistance. May work though.
+1 Reply
jangseohee CommoditiesTrader
2 years ago
btter than nothing :-P
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jangseohee CommoditiesTrader
2 years ago
Good luck to you too :-)

Reply
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