PLEASE READ THE PREVIOUS POST FOR CONTEXT FIRST:
Notes: So this is what I see, generally speaking, through May 20 2021. I want to point out that I have studied Elliot Waves and Fib ratios. I don't know any of those guys with those methods calling for 2570 by mid November, much less 3K by March 20. The specific move to November, I would stack up against those methods. With those methods, you cannot honestly say: this is what I project with my wave count. Well, this is what pure PRS projects, without handicaps by wave counts and and fibonnacci ratios. What I mean is since I am a student of those methods, it is HARD FOR ME TO UNLEARN WHAT IS IN MY MEMORY FOR SO LONG. So every major turn, I get trapped by questions like:
1) is it .382 or .500 or .681?
2) is it c of B, or just a of B?
3) and then I run fractals to to compare them vs historical move.
And I do this automatically without realizing I am doing it.
BUT I WANT TO STRESS THIS POINT:
THIS IS WHAT THE CURRENT DAILY AND AND WEEKLY REGRESSIONS SAY STACKED FOR 2100 BARS IN BOTH DAILY TF AND WEEKLY TF. (2100 WEEKS IS 40 YEARS).
And I write this LAST PRS idea for TradingView readers, using only what I have found to be true WITH FIRST HAND EXPERIENCE regarding price regression layering, which organically project prices with out relying on dogmatic theory/methodology.
Notes: So this is what I see, generally speaking, through May 20 2021. I want to point out that I have studied Elliot Waves and Fib ratios. I don't know any of those guys with those methods calling for 2570 by mid November, much less 3K by March 20. The specific move to November, I would stack up against those methods. With those methods, you cannot honestly say: this is what I project with my wave count. Well, this is what pure PRS projects, without handicaps by wave counts and and fibonnacci ratios. What I mean is since I am a student of those methods, it is HARD FOR ME TO UNLEARN WHAT IS IN MY MEMORY FOR SO LONG. So every major turn, I get trapped by questions like:
1) is it .382 or .500 or .681?
2) is it c of B, or just a of B?
3) and then I run fractals to to compare them vs historical move.
And I do this automatically without realizing I am doing it.
BUT I WANT TO STRESS THIS POINT:
THIS IS WHAT THE CURRENT DAILY AND AND WEEKLY REGRESSIONS SAY STACKED FOR 2100 BARS IN BOTH DAILY TF AND WEEKLY TF. (2100 WEEKS IS 40 YEARS).
And I write this LAST PRS idea for TradingView readers, using only what I have found to be true WITH FIRST HAND EXPERIENCE regarding price regression layering, which organically project prices with out relying on dogmatic theory/methodology.
Comment:
Note, I will continue any/all updates here as I have time for them.
Comment:
On a technical note: I have found that my most accurate calls are when I rely on regression readings as they are. For the purposes of writing these ideas on tradingview, I have found the correct method to use regression layering and also which markets this method works the best for.
Comment:
On a personal note: I am long March 19 at the money calls.
Comment:
Comment:
Chart above describes expectations for the incoming week.
Comment:
Note that by the vertical line (late this Friday after NFP is where price is expected to bottom).
Comment:
Note that previous chart was XAUUSD from OANDA. Here is from ICE: even weaker.
Comment:
Here is from FXCM, stronger though, definitely does not expect anything under 1840-1845.
Comment:
Here is futures, even stronger than FXCM's spot ticker. Not only does not expect under 1880, but arguably may break up here. Why do I not expect it to? Because all 3 XAUUSD tickers say the reverse.
Comment:
And finally GLD, which is the weakest of all. This say to expect a retest of 1865.
So in summary. Obvious this favors a check down, especially considering Friday is September NFP. Is there enough confidence to break up AHEAD OF NFP? The evidence says no, unless all the buying in futures makes up for the rest of the weakness EVERYWHERE ELSE.
So in summary. Obvious this favors a check down, especially considering Friday is September NFP. Is there enough confidence to break up AHEAD OF NFP? The evidence says no, unless all the buying in futures makes up for the rest of the weakness EVERYWHERE ELSE.
Comment:
INTERMEDIATELY THOUGH WHY MUCH HIGHER?? Here is spot from FXCM.
Comment:
Here is spot from OANDA:
Comment:
Comment:
Comment:
Comment:
I forgot to say where I really think the check down this week lands. I think 1885 at the worst. But again, 1840 and bounce does not change November forecast more than 50 pts, so 2520 instead of 2570. This is because I use 1885 as the floor for that forecast.
Comment:
On a personal note: I am ready to entry 4 more times until next Monday, meaning my entries are 5 entries not 1.
Comment:
UPDATE: TO CLEAR THIS UP.
I have almost complete confidence in my November forecast. My March forecast, I am projecting with weekly layering. There are many less layers in weekly layering available (bc a 1wk bar is 5 dayss), so I need to see more in November to back up the March calls.
For example, if we for some reason hit 2800 in November, that will definitely change things bc)
1) that's a lot for a short time, which
2) requires an aggressive correction to rebalance the regression waves
3) this throws anything after election week out the window
I have almost complete confidence in my November forecast. My March forecast, I am projecting with weekly layering. There are many less layers in weekly layering available (bc a 1wk bar is 5 dayss), so I need to see more in November to back up the March calls.
For example, if we for some reason hit 2800 in November, that will definitely change things bc)
1) that's a lot for a short time, which
2) requires an aggressive correction to rebalance the regression waves
3) this throws anything after election week out the window
Comment:
UPDATE: If you have read me for a while. I am always very confident, but VERY OPEN TO CHANGING MY MIND 180 degrees the other way. This time? It will take a number under 1840 for me to begin reconsideration. I have my reason, but explaining them would give away all my work.
Comment:
UPDATE 9/2 12:37 AM
Comment:
If we don't get weakness in the next 2 weeks, what can we expect by November 10? I can't believe I'm typing this: 2800.
Comment:
Hold 1910 9/18.
Comment:
Missing an update I thought I posted. So even though gold pullback 65 since 1993, all I see is strength.
What I think the floor is to next week: 1910. I had previously thought it would be 1885, but the sustained break of the flag implies 1910 should hold. If so, I can see 2600-2800 by Nov 10th. And I
What I think the floor is to next week: 1910. I had previously thought it would be 1885, but the sustained break of the flag implies 1910 should hold. If so, I can see 2600-2800 by Nov 10th. And I
Comment:
... and I am dumbing down the regression spreads bc I don't have a similar situation to compare it to. I see a MASSIVE MASSIVE run up, but most of it will be 9/18 and to 11-10.
Comment:
Thursday 9/3 9:16 AM
Comment:
Notes: After doing this for 5 months, I've understood what works and what doesn't. So chart above is what I think is happening, generally speaking. What does that mean? Regressions show that there's 3 tradings days of real weakness left, and maybe only 2. Those are today, Friday, and maybe next Monday. During those 3 days, the low is important to November high forecast.
1) I think 1910 holds, but it doesn't have to.
2) If 1910 holds, I forecast a high around 2850 by 11/10.
3) If 1885 is tagged, I still see a high above 2750.
4) If 1865 is retested, above 2650.
5) If 1840 is the floor, above 2550.
6) I don't see a scenario under 1840.
And I'm using conservative targets all the way down, meaning if it gold moves to 1845, then reverses up quickly, I still don't have a problem with forecasting a 2750 target if the reverse is IMMEDIATE.
It would take a sustained break of 1840 - meaning get down there AND STAY down there for 2 days for targets to change.
1) I think 1910 holds, but it doesn't have to.
2) If 1910 holds, I forecast a high around 2850 by 11/10.
3) If 1885 is tagged, I still see a high above 2750.
4) If 1865 is retested, above 2650.
5) If 1840 is the floor, above 2550.
6) I don't see a scenario under 1840.
And I'm using conservative targets all the way down, meaning if it gold moves to 1845, then reverses up quickly, I still don't have a problem with forecasting a 2750 target if the reverse is IMMEDIATE.
It would take a sustained break of 1840 - meaning get down there AND STAY down there for 2 days for targets to change.
Comment:
9:28 AM.
Meanwhile, price action between now and 9/28 is sideways to up. Making short term forecast for price action is not worth it. In any case, I've been buying everyday for the last 5, with 2 bullets left: Friday and Tuesday*. Just realized Monday is Labor Day.
Meanwhile, price action between now and 9/28 is sideways to up. Making short term forecast for price action is not worth it. In any case, I've been buying everyday for the last 5, with 2 bullets left: Friday and Tuesday*. Just realized Monday is Labor Day.