The long interest rate play may have been one of the most productive plays of, oh, the last five years or so (maybe more) with shorts in (pick your poison) SHY (1-3 year maturity paper), IEF (7-10), TLT (20+), EMB (emerging market), HYG (junk) being the rage, particularly with the Fed giving the market a fairly good idea of the when. Unfortunately, the point at which the Fed starts considering easing is -- at least at this point -- more fuzzy both in terms of timing and the terminal rate at which we end similarly covered in fur.
That being said, it's good to be prepared and to look at the who's, what's, when's, and where's of where you might take the purest form of a bet that rates ease from that point forward and that (at least in my little noggin) is with /GE.
Pictured here is /GE, where you can see how fabulous the short was from basically ZIRP to where we are today, with the box wrapped around a potential terminal rate of between 5.25% and 5.75%. My basic notion here is to long /GE in some fashion in this area or ultimately where the terminal rate ends up, particularly when the Fed gives us some sense of the "when" of a potential cut. Chairman Powell has indicated a lack of likelihood for a 2023 cut with the CME Fed Watch Tool reflecting that to some minor extent,* but -- as we've seen repeatedly -- the landscape (inflation, unemployment, yada yada) can change, so the terminal rate may end up slightly (or not so slightly) different from current expectations of 500-550 bps and the timing of any eventual cuts slightly (or not so slightly) different from the markets thoughts on the matter.
* -- Currently, the Tool indicates that the market is leaning (but somewhat equivocally) toward a small potential cut in June, but is looking more toward the end of the year toward potential cuts at the moment (i.e., at the November and December meetings) which are similarly equivocal.
That being said, it's good to be prepared and to look at the who's, what's, when's, and where's of where you might take the purest form of a bet that rates ease from that point forward and that (at least in my little noggin) is with /GE.
Pictured here is /GE, where you can see how fabulous the short was from basically ZIRP to where we are today, with the box wrapped around a potential terminal rate of between 5.25% and 5.75%. My basic notion here is to long /GE in some fashion in this area or ultimately where the terminal rate ends up, particularly when the Fed gives us some sense of the "when" of a potential cut. Chairman Powell has indicated a lack of likelihood for a 2023 cut with the CME Fed Watch Tool reflecting that to some minor extent,* but -- as we've seen repeatedly -- the landscape (inflation, unemployment, yada yada) can change, so the terminal rate may end up slightly (or not so slightly) different from current expectations of 500-550 bps and the timing of any eventual cuts slightly (or not so slightly) different from the markets thoughts on the matter.
* -- Currently, the Tool indicates that the market is leaning (but somewhat equivocally) toward a small potential cut in June, but is looking more toward the end of the year toward potential cuts at the moment (i.e., at the November and December meetings) which are similarly equivocal.