The IEF (US 7-10 year Treasury ETF), has held on to the 0.382 Fibonacci Retrace aligning with a Long-term and Established Trend line and the 200-Month Simple Moving Average with high amounts of MACD Bullish Divergence and a move above the 0 line on the Oscillators. All of these factors point towards lower yields in the 7-10 Year Treasuries and an increase in par...
It looks like we are turning over.
Coupled with gigantic short positioning of speculators on bonds (highest in history bsed on the COT Data), the chart indicates that yields will fall again.
Why would they fall?
Because of a flight to saftey and/or a recession.
I am keeping it very simple, I just buy Bonds via ETF. I am long TLT, IEF and SHY.
With that trade,...
The long interest rate play may have been one of the most productive plays of, oh, the last five years or so (maybe more) with shorts in (pick your poison) SHY (1-3 year maturity paper), IEF (7-10), TLT (20+), EMB (emerging market), HYG (junk) being the rage, particularly with the Fed giving the market a fairly good idea of the when. Unfortunately, the point at...
I'm both a bull and a bear on the 20yr treasury etf (TLT).. I created a long term buy analysis basis on the bullish cypher pattern I see forming at the conclusion of D leg. I like the yield of the 20yr treasury bond which is over 4%.. The dividend yield on the 20yr Treasury etf is 2.49% currently, and I expect it to rise. The dividend is paid monthly. I see the...
bearish head and shoulders pattern forming. the rise of the right shoulder is short term bullish. this is to test the previous resistances of Elliott Wave #3, and to test the previous support levels of (A) and (C)...I'm stalking a short entry near or slightly above those levels. Also goes with my theory of favoring short term corporate bonds. I think they are undervalued.
2 yr yield usually tops out 1.5 months before FED pivots. Right now shortterm bonds (inverse of yields)
are showing bullish divergence. Historically, this may predict that the FED may halt rate hikes or become less aggressive sometime this coming November. This will be very bullish for bonds & growth stocks.
Note that as of today, the 10-yr yield is still...
After news of the ECB having an emergency meeting - same day Powell raised rates by .75bps - The Dollar took a cooling session. Possibly due to central banks looking for ways to tackle rising borrowing costs. I don't think the bull run is over for $DXY - it takes is a global recession to see possible all time highs - even higher then the 1980's. Signs are there
😲 2's 10's INVERSIO N😲
A journalist's favourite recession indicator, the “2’s 10’s curve” inverted earlier this month… As the story goes, 𝙩𝙝𝙞𝙨 𝙡𝙚𝙖𝙙𝙨 𝙩𝙤 𝙖 𝙧𝙚𝙘𝙚𝙨𝙨𝙞𝙤𝙣 within 12-24months 😲
👉 But this time… it’s different 😅
Here’s the chart -> (FRED-FRED:T10Y2Y)
To clarify, I’m not saying there won’t be a recession, or NSDQ100 crash, in fact it’s a real...
I may be jumping the gun here, but with the emergency rate cut.
we are going to have to cut the rates some more next fomc meeting, and as the situation progress and with the way trump is whining about fed rate cuts.
there a high chance of certainty that they will eventually cut the rate to 0%, especially as corona cases get serious and hits 1 million. it's...
If anything a short sell would have been optimal on the corner as price action may move lower as this price action appears peaked. An entry point at the next upper median line would offer good risk return because a buy stop would have structure behind the proposed entry with significant return opportunities. This would mean that short term interest rates would...
Treasury yields have been rising over the past two months, with 2-10 treasury yield spread reaching 29 bps on 12/20/2019, highest level since June 2019.
The 1 to 3 year Treasury ETF - SHY broke below the June-November 2019 trendline last week, forming a head-and-shoulder top. Based on the project, the treasury bond ETF prices could target 83.95 area, retracing...
Treasury yields have been rising over the past two months, with 2-10 treasury yield spread reaching 29 bps on 12/20/2019, highest level since June 2019.
The 1 to 3 year Treasury ETF - SHY broke below the June-November 2019 trendline last week, forming a head-and-shoulder top. Based on the project, the treasury bond ETF prices could target 83.95 area, retracing 50%...
Using a weekly chart to predict the path of short term interest rates, it appears lower rates are ahead. The path toward lower interest rates which continues to keep the inflation game going.
