Contrarian bet against the onslaught of bond bears.
RH Technicals vs. WallStreet
- Clean, MACD Bullish Divergence
- Descending Triangle, Completed E-wave signals new trend.
- 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement hit; Also referred to as the Golden Retracement . It is, after all, based on the Golden Ratio.
- And potentially a False Breakdown, likely to mirror the False...
10-year Treasury futures took a good whack today but still remain in a bullish consolidation phase going back to March. I'd be very wary of selling into weakness here - the economy remains in deep, deep shit.
TLT resumed the year-long rally, after a four month long consolidation, extending toward 146, Oct'19 high. Above the latter, TLT should retest the 149 peak in Aug'19. reaching the 150 area. However, momentum indicator is in the overbought territory. The ETF could consolidate under the current resistance before attempting higher.
Fibs very significant on way down, but not such much since reversal. Nevetheless trend is up.
Here's an approximate plot based on fibs. Note yields currently oversold
(Bonds are inverse of yields, best ETF is IEF
When plumbing works well, you don’t need to think about it. That’s usually the case with a vital but obscure part of the financial system known as the repo market.
Bank of International Settlements has been reporting some very interesting documents connecting overleverage by MULTIPLE hedge funds (potentially even my hero Ray at Bridgewater) in the overnight...
With economic uncertainty continuing to grip the financial markets, the US Dollar continues to be in play. As global investors flock to US assets, both stocks and bonds, in search of above average returns and safety, the US Dollar continues to strengthen against its G10 and EM counterparts.
As this trend continues, a key level to watch for the Greenback is its...
The squeeze in Treasuries is coming soon. Right now, it's just getting started and testing the break. The narrative of deflation has picked up steam strongly in the past 2 months with oil now clobbered, Powell going dovish (today), stocks down, and many many other reasons.
Nothing huge here, just watching for this trend to break as many others have recently. Major trend breaks = regime change. If this falls out of the pattern here, I expect the yield curve to invert not all that long afterward.
Just another anecdote of how this trades much better using a log scale than a non-log scale. This will likely break out to the downside within the next few months. See my longer term chart for reference.