Looking at Emerging Market Debt vs. US Treasury Bonds ratio - is this evidence of risk on?
Weekly IEF chart. 2/28/20 Risk vs Reward warning Bonds have performed very well and Treasury yields have tanked Could it go higher? Sure.
TLT resumed the year-long rally, after a four month long consolidation, extending toward 146, Oct'19 high. Above the latter, TLT should retest the 149 peak in Aug'19. reaching the 150 area. However, momentum indicator is in the overbought territory. The ETF could consolidate under the current resistance before attempting higher. Happy Trading!
Fibs very significant on way down, but not such much since reversal. Nevetheless trend is up. Here's an approximate plot based on fibs. Note yields currently oversold (Bonds are inverse of yields, best ETF is IEF
When plumbing works well, you don’t need to think about it. That’s usually the case with a vital but obscure part of the financial system known as the repo market. Bank of International Settlements has been reporting some very interesting documents connecting overleverage by MULTIPLE hedge funds (potentially even my hero Ray at Bridgewater) in the overnight...
Always amazes me how clean the charts look on some asset classes.
The squeeze in Treasuries is coming soon. Right now, it's just getting started and testing the break. The narrative of deflation has picked up steam strongly in the past 2 months with oil now clobbered, Powell going dovish (today), stocks down, and many many other reasons.
With economic uncertainty continuing to grip the financial markets, the US Dollar continues to be in play. As global investors flock to US assets, both stocks and bonds, in search of above average returns and safety, the US Dollar continues to strengthen against its G10 and EM counterparts. As this trend continues, a key level to watch for the Greenback is its...
inverse H&S breaking out. flight to safety? $SHY $IEF $SPY
The US10Y looks to be gaining towards a bullish outlook creating this ETF to continue to increase its pattern. Waiting for breakout!
big volume in treasury bond ETF's past few months. money is shifting $IEF $TLT $SPY
Nothing huge here, just watching for this trend to break as many others have recently. Major trend breaks = regime change. If this falls out of the pattern here, I expect the yield curve to invert not all that long afterward.
Just another anecdote of how this trades much better using a log scale than a non-log scale. This will likely break out to the downside within the next few months. See my longer term chart for reference.
There have been a lot of talks of a bond bear market over the past year. That would be a big problem, but it's not here yet. The biggest problem is that too many chartists are using and circulating charts of trend resistance breaking in bonds that do not use log scales. I get that it seems intuitively dumb for a yield chart to use a log scale, but that's how this...
Both rising support and demand zone a lot lower