The bond bear is not here yet.... use a log scale

There have been a lot of talks of a bond bear market over the past year. That would be a big problem, but it's not here yet. The biggest problem is that too many chartists are using and circulating charts of trend resistance breaking in bonds that do not use log scales. I get that it seems intuitively dumb for a yield chart to use a log scale, but that's how this has traded for the better part of the last 20 years. Trade what is, not what you think should be.

Turns out we haven't yet hit the top channel here, so we're not in a bond bear. It also turns out that touching the top channel occurred every time the fed quit hiking rates over the past 30 years, which preceded the last 3 recessions / bear markets by 1-2 months at least.

Short term, we're in a rising wedge that the bond market has obeyed quite well. If we rise directly to the top of the channel, that would imply a May 2019 break of this uptrend and a recession / bear market starting around mid 2019 into 2020. Who knows how this actually plays out, but I know we haven't hit a true bond bear yet, and even when we do, it'll probably be far less exciting than people want to believe.