makro_mies

DAX is trending still inside the downward channel

I think it's important to observe DAX             performance in the real (dollar) terms. That basically means we have to look GER30*EURUSD. It made it's top long before compared to nominal terms ( GER30             ) @ 12386 in 2015-04-06. Since that day it has been trending lower, but are things starting to change?

The ratio tells you that has the price appreciation been faster than Eur/Usd             exchange rate declining - i.e. are the things getting better fundamentally or has the recent appreciation been only currency inflation?

Based on the fibonacci's and recent price action, it has not been only currency inflation . GER30*EURUSD made a bottom in the beginning of 2016 FY and an impressive double bottom in the summer. Since then GER30             has been appreciating faster than Eur/Usd             declining. If the both would start appreciating, that would imply that things are really starting to improve fundamentally in the European Union. That would mean GER30*EURUSD to break above the channel.

Now it seems to be in "consolidation-mode", but coming months will show hopefully medium-term direction.
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