alx13
Short

DAX - head-fake or real break-out?

FX:GER30   DAX index of German listed shares
Well, yesterday the market got close to the TL and then, thanks to the very dovish comments from Draghi, rocket launched right through the TL, never looking back.
I have to admit I have started to look short way too early, but never jumped in since we never had an impulsive decline telling the story. So at least I was not rolled over.

Now, DAX             is coming to the next interesting juncture. The 200 days MA is right here, being pierced slightly already.. apart from that the 1s of the current counts are not so far away... IF we had a complete impulse over when we took out the crash low (where the ((5)) sits) then this rally must not overlap 10.798, which is dangerously close. If on the other hand we are still in ((4)) and the overtake of the crash low was just wave B of a very large flat structure, then we still have some room up to about 11.000, where ((1)) sits.

Basically, at this point it's not very relevant whether the ((4)) finished earlier or will finish now, since a big decline should ensue in either scenario. From where exactly that shoudl happen is still up from grabs, but if we start retreating below the 200d MA that would be an early clue a turrn has happened.

IF we overlap also the ((1)) high, then we will have to start to consider the bull count, which implies a complete A-B-C finished at the lows and we should go up to make new ATHs. Until that happens I see this as the alt scenario though.

Also to mention, currently all DAX             cycles at mcm are in upward impulses, which is a strong indication of strenght. They triggered one after the other starting with 10212 and then 10272. That helped me stay out of the way and not jump in short too early despite my bearish views.
For any questions on that feel free to email me at alex@mcm-ct.com and/or visit the site at www.mcm-ct.com

Good luck out there!
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