Gold Weekly Forecast: September 27 to October 1st

What happened last week?:

Last week was fantastic for the USD. USD became strong against all of the major currencies.

FOMC was hawkish as FED announced that if the U.S. upcoming economic data comes positive, they will start tapering very soon.

I mean, every high-impact positive report will help the USD and gold will drop.


What is not clear for the future?

Alternative scenarios, if the U.S. comes negative, FED's tapering chance will fade for this year. So, it will help the gold to push up.

But what my research says, as china injected al tons of money into their economy, that means they are trying to overcome the economic crisis. That may push down gold below the 1700 price zone.

FED also said, if the economic data support, they will also start the tapering. I mean, the U.S government will also start injection money to support their economy.

From my view, if the pandemic doesn't rise faster, till December, Gold will drop by impulse and correction way. I mean, gold's overall trend may be down.


What About the next week?

There are several high and medium pact reports due to publish.

Core Durable Goods Orders
Durable Goods Orders
Some FOMC members Speech
Crude Oil Inventories ( It will impact on Crude Price)
FED Chair Powell Speech
Final GDP
Core PCE inflation report
ISM manufacturing PMI

GDP, Powell Speech, Core PCE inflation report, and ISM manufacturing PMI report are very high impact and most market mover data.

The final GDP report expected positive, but the other two reports expected bit negative. Hopefully, these reports will bit supportive for the USD.

But numbers of FED members the cautious. If they hint, economic conditions are not good enough as they are expected.

Investors will take it harmful for the USD. Because that will indirectly hint, FED will wait for the subsequent tapering. That means gold also has a chance to go up again.

But I don't think most of the FED members will play with tapering issues. If you play, it will be bad luck.


Technical View:

Gold's downtrend is still caped. Gold's current market price is in the 1757 price zone. (while I am writing this analysis) I think it's an excellent place to sell. And stop-loss should be above the 1784 price.

First target 1740 price zone. Breaking below 1740, our 2nd target should be at the 1720 price zone. Finally, breaking below 1720 will open the door for the 1680/1685 price zone.

On the other hand, the U.S economic data comes than forecast. Gold price may go up above 1784/1785 price zone. Our first upward target would be the 1830/1835 zone. I don't think the market will be able to go above the 1835 price.

It's critical resistance. So, it needs robust economic reports.

Trade closed: target reached:

Target 1 Reached. Wait for the target 2