NaughtyPines

EARNINGS PLAYS NEXT WEEK -- THE BIGGIE, GOOG

NASDAQ:GOOG   ALPHABET INC
The next big earnings play on the calendar is GOOG             , which is no longer Google             , but Alphabet             , Inc. (the name change will never stick; I will still call it Google             ). It announces earnings next Thursday, and it's looking mighty juicy at this point. Having run through a couple of iron condor setups (which is the only way I will play this given the price of the underlying), it looks like it will easily come in at 2.00+ per contract.

Unfortunately, it's had a bit of a run up these past several days, putting current price within striking distance of its all time high of about 679 in anticipation, apparently, of stellar earnings, which could make a neutrally biased setup problematic, especially since GOOG             has a tendency to alternately explode or implode.

Currently, the 1 SD             line to the upside is around the 720 strike; to the downside at the 605 (about 115 points wide) for the Oct             30th expiry, with an expected move between 625 and 700. However, we've had several "implosions" below 600 (one on 8/24 -- no surprise there) and one more recently on 9/28, when it broke down to 589 and change off a swing high of nearly 651. The last earnings produced an explosion, from 579 to initially more than 100 points higher, so obviously the thing has both profit written all over it if it stays between your short strikes and prolonged agony if it doesn't ... .

Naturally, I'll look at these concerns and ultimately decide on a set up closer to earnings ... . My initial feeling is to skew the setup slightly bearish .
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