INTEL : FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS + NEXT TARGET LEVEL 🔔

Intel was hit hard by rival Advanced Micro Devices in the x86 (central processing unit) processor market, losing share in servers and PC processors thanks to the latter's technological advantage.

But now Chipzilla has aimed at AMD as well as Nvidia, entering the multi-billion dollar discrete graphics processor (GPU) market.
Intel recently announced that the first generation of Arc discrete graphics cards will be available in the first quarter of 2022. Chipzilla claims that these cards will "deliver high-performance gaming, immersive visual effects, seamless streaming, and game creation."

Intel's first-generation discrete graphics cards, codenamed Alchemist, will include ray tracing technology and artificial intelligence-based supersampling. Competitors AMD and Nvidia already equip their cards with such technologies, and gamers willingly buy their graphics processors of the latest generation to improve gameplay. Moreover, Intel plans to have three more generations of Arc graphics cards after Alchemist - Battlemage, Celestial, and Druid, which means that the company plans to consistently improve its GPUs over time.

All of this indicates that Intel is serious about taking a rightful place in the discrete GPU market, which could herald a much-needed turn in the company's fortunes and help stop the recent decline in its financial performance. Moreover, there are several reasons why Chipzilla could take market share away from AMD and Nvidia after launching its cards.

First, the Alchemist GPUs will be based on Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing's N6 6-nanometer (nm) technology node. Current AMD RDNA 2 gaming GPUs are based on 7nm process technology, while Nvidia's Ampere gaming GPUs are based on Samsung's 8nm process technology. AMD is expected to switch to TSMC's 6nm process when it releases its next generation of RDNA 3 graphics cards. Meanwhile, rumors suggest that Nvidia could move to the 5nm process when it releases its next-generation cards, codenamed Ada Lovelace, in 2022.

Identical manufacturing processes mean Intel could find itself on equal footing with Nvidia and AMD on the technology front. Thus, Chipzilla enters the GPU market with a solid background that could make it a viable third choice for gamers who have trouble buying graphics cards because Nvidia and AMD can't produce them in sufficient quantity.

That brings us to the second reason Intel may be in the discrete graphics processor market: Nvidia and AMD can't produce enough cards to meet the huge end-market demand.

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang explained this during the August financial results report:

"The demand for RTX is incredible. ... And now we've zeroed in on the installed base, and Ampere has gotten off to an incredible start, becoming the best-selling GPU architecture in our company's history. And yet, we've only updated about 20% - less than 20% of our total installed base."

Similarly, AMD is also witnessing strong demand, which is why CEO Lisa Su recently noted that supply will remain tight despite the company's efforts to increase capacity.

Intel can fill the void to some extent by offering a viable GPU alternative for Nvidia and AMD. It could poach potential AMD and Nvidia customers and get a good start in the discrete graphics card market if it can produce enough units. So don't be surprised if Intel does well in the GPU market next year, which will be good for the chipmaker due to the wide end-market opportunities.
Intel intends to be in the discrete graphics card business for a long time, as the company has unveiled its horizon, which currently includes four generations of GPUs. Success in this market could add billions of dollars to Intel's revenue; according to Jon Peddie Research, discrete graphics card revenue will be $54 billion by 2025, up significantly from $23.6 billion in 2020.

Nvidia is currently the dominant player in this area with an 83% market share in the second quarter, while AMD holds the remainder. As it turns out, AMD is having a hard time withstanding the competitive pressure from Nvidia, and this could be an opportunity for Intel to do its part. If Intel starts taking GPU market share away from AMD and poaching potential Nvidia customers by producing enough cards and offering stable supply, it could gradually establish itself as a key player in the GPU market in the long run.

That could give Intel a much-needed boost, as the company's revenue will drop to $73.5 billion this year, compared with revenues of $77.9 billion in 2020. Analysts estimate that the downtrend could continue into 2022, but steady progress in the GPU market could give Intel a much-needed breather and help these tech stocks regain their spirit.