Leidos To Give Some Back

NYSE:LDOS   Leidos Holdings, Inc.
Leidos has been in a bullish trend since last year. During this course of this trend, the stock has move down after hitting resistance. This resistance was struck once again on May 25. May 25 also paved the way for a double top, which is a bearish signal. I will outline why the near-term movement is likely to the downside below.

When we take a look at other technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 63.7117. RSI tends to determine trends, overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. Currently the RSI is overbought and due to drop. This indicator has not received overbought territory since the end of February. However, this indicator has been trending downward preventing newer highs. Currently, this oscillator is at the resistance point it has been reversing at. This is the first indication of potential downward movement in the near-term.

The true strength index (TSI) is currently 8.0001. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. This indicator has also had resistance similar to that observed in the RSI oscillator. Once again the indicator is near that level of resistance. This is the second indication of potential downward movement in the near-term.

The positive vortex indicator (VI) is at 0.9866 and the negative is at 0.9193. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. Currently both indicators are relatively flat (below 1) and have been in a very tight movement span since early May. The stock should move in the direction of which ever indicator breaks from this tight pattern.

The stochastic oscillator K value is 89.3405 and D value is 58.6453. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals and short-term activity. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. The K value is currently overbought, but the overall oscillator is not yet overbought. The stock could move up a little more before reversing, or it could simply reverse now. This is the third indication of potential downward movement in the near-term.

The formation of the double top is the fourth indication of potential downward movement. A double top occurred in March and the stock dropped 9.33% over 16 trading days. If this is indeed a double top, a similar drop could occur.

Considering the RSI, TSI, VI and stochastic levels, the overall direction favors a move to the downside. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the current position, the stock could gain at least 2.60% over the next 29 trading days if not sooner.

All forecasts are based on analysis of past behavior. Prior movements are not always indicative of future movement. Develop the theory, test the theory. Do your own research. Nothing in this analysis constitutes advice. Good luck!!

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