BINANCE:LRCUSD   Loopring / US Dollar (calculated by TradingView)
• When LRCUSD is in an uptrend and closes below the 8W SMA , it has at least tested the 21W EMA .
• It’s now testing the 21W EMA , which also happens to be around the price where many bought in end-Oct’21 / early-Nov’21.
• Fundamentally, the mood within the reddit groups have turned from jubilant to rather downbeat, and has the potential to further worsen if LRCUSD does not pump. The weekly RSI has also more room to drop.
• However, though the recent BTCUSD and LRCUSD dumps are expected ( BTCUSD retests at least the 20W SMA when it closes below the 8W SMA ), the LRCUSD dump took longer than expected and is less severe than originally expected. There might be still some gas left in LRCUSD.
BTCUSD may have bottomed, or it may not. If BTCUSD dumps further, then let’s KIV any thoughts of LRCUSD till BTCUSD gets back above its bull market support band.
• Strategy 1, If BTCUSD remains above $38K, then watch if LRCUSD closes above its 21W EMA (currently at $1.52) this week. If so, then DCA in.
• Strategy 2, given that LRCUSD may dump further, DCA in at around $0.60.
• Strategy 3, buy LRCUSD when it gets back above the 8W SMA and retests it.
• Strategies 1-3 are arranged in descending order of risk. LRCUSD is an inherently risky investment, and as a long-term trader with mid-high risk appetite, I’d personally go for Strategy 3 if it happens before what is described in Strategy 2.
• I still suspect LRCUSD will not see a new ATH this bullrun. So unless there is anything which changes my mind, if I were to adopt Strategy 2/3, I will sell within 85% of the previous ATH.
Comment: Disclaimer 1: Not financial advice, but as a form of feedback analysis.
Disclaimer 2: I'm a long-term trader who thinks in weeks/months, and who actively tries to minimise the number of trades I make. These are very important considerations for me when I analyse the market and/or post anything.
Comment: • Unsurprisingly, LRCUSD closed below the 21W EMA.
• The 20W SMA is catching up with the 21W EMA.
• If the 20W SMA crosses above the 21W EMA, and if history were any indication, then more patience is required.
Comment: • I might be wrong, but it seems that the sentiments with regard LRC has changed.
• Lower lows are being formed, as opposed to other altcoins which have bottomed and are ranging.
• 20W SMA clearly breached, and with all probability, will be closing the daily below the $1.20 resistance level.
• In all probability, more dump coming.
Comment: Oh yes, in other words, Strategy 1 is out. Let's continue watching and assess the viability of Strategies 2 and 3.
Comment: Depending on your risk appetite, it might not be a bad idea to start considering DCAing in LRC soon. For now, still KIV and monitor.
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